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New urban planning challenges under emerging autonomous mobility: evaluating backcasting scenarios and policies through an expert survey

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  • Nogués, Soledad
  • González-González, Esther
  • Cordera, Rubén

Abstract

The future implementation of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in cities can have significant impacts, both positive and negative, on their sustainability. The objective of this research is to investigate those impacts and evaluate which policies could be most effective in achieving the desired city scenario through a backcasting planning methodology. To this end, a survey among experts was carried out in which they expressed their opinions on the potential consequences of AVs in cities and on the effectiveness of various policy packages focused on achieving a more sustainable mobility and land use planning. The results obtained show that the experts consulted were sceptical about the positive impacts of AVs, arguing that they could induce an increase in car trips and urban sprawl. The policies that could be most effective in mitigating these effects, leading to a city more aligned with the planned objectives would be: to strengthen active (foot, bicycle) and public transport modes, to restrict access of motorised modes to central urban areas and to use freed spaces for alternative modes of transport, green areas and public facilities. A cluster analysis also showed that most of the experts consulted considered that the policy packages presented could be effective or very effective in reaching the most desirable scenario. Therefore, it is important that the implementation of AVs does not subordinate to, but enhances, the sustainable mobility and land use policies already being developed in many urban areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Nogués, Soledad & González-González, Esther & Cordera, Rubén, 2020. "New urban planning challenges under emerging autonomous mobility: evaluating backcasting scenarios and policies through an expert survey," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:95:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719319945
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104652
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    4. Acheampong, Ransford A. & Legacy, Crystal & Kingston, Richard & Stone, John, 2023. "Imagining urban mobility futures in the era of autonomous vehicles—insights from participatory visioning and multi-criteria appraisal in the UK and Australia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 193-208.
    5. Rubén Cordera & Soledad Nogués & Esther González-González & José Luis Moura, 2021. "Modeling the Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Land Use Using a LUTI Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh & Tayarani, Mohammad & Rowangould, Gregory, 2021. "A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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