IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v103y2021icp68-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Junyi
  • Hayashi, Yoshitsugu
  • Frank, Lawrence D.

Abstract

Impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the transport sector and the corresponding policy measures are becoming widely investigated. Considering the various uncertainties and unknowns about this virus and its impacts (especially long-term impacts), it is critical to understand opinions and suggestions from experts within the transport sector and related planning fields. To date, however, there is no study that fills this gap in a comprehensive way. This paper is an executive summary of the findings of the WCTRS COVID-19 Taskforce expert survey conducted worldwide between the end of April and late May 2020, obtaining 284 valid answers. The experts include those in the field of transport and other relevant disciplines, keeping good balances between geographic regions, types of workplaces, and working durations. Based on extensive analyses of the survey results, this paper first reveals the realities of lockdowns, restrictions of out-of-home activities and other physical distancing requirements, as well as modal shifts. Experts’ agreements and disagreements to the structural questions about changes in lifestyles and society are then discussed. Analysis results revealed that our human society was not well prepared for the current pandemic, reaffirming the importance of risk communication. Geographical differences of modal shifts are further identified, especially related to active transport and car dependence. Improved sustainability and resilience are expected in the future but should be supported by effective behavioral intervention measures. Finally, policy implications of the findings are discussed, together with important future research issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Frank, Lawrence D., 2021. "COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:103:y:2021:i:c:p:68-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21000172
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Linfeng & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Kun & Zhan, Yi & Bian, Lei, 2020. "Measuring imported case risk of COVID-19 from inbound international flights --- A case study on China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Kattirtzi, Michael & Winskel, Mark, 2020. "When experts disagree: Using the Policy Delphi method to analyse divergent expert expectations and preferences on UK energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Jesús Valero-Gil & Ana Allué-Poc & Abel Ortego & Fabio Tomasi & Sabina Scarpellini, 2018. "What are the preferences in the development process of a sustainable urban mobility plan? New methodology for experts involvement," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1/2), pages 135-155.
    4. AlSabbagh, Maha & Siu, Yim Ling & Guehnemann, Astrid & Barrett, John, 2017. "Integrated approach to the assessment of CO2e-mitigation measures for the road passenger transport sector in Bahrain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 203-215.
    5. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days of easing restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 95-119.
    6. Potter, S. & Rye, T. & Smith, M., 1999. "Tax and green transport plans: a survey of UK experience," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 197-205, October.
    7. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kester, Johannes & de Rubens, Gerardo Zarazua & Noel, Lance, 2018. "Expert perceptions of low-carbon transitions: Investigating the challenges of electricity decarbonisation in the Nordic region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1162-1172.
    8. Xenias, Dimitrios & Whitmarsh, Lorraine, 2013. "Dimensions and determinants of expert and public attitudes to sustainable transport policies and technologies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 75-85.
    9. Hirschhorn, Fabio & Veeneman, Wijnand & van de Velde, Didier, 2018. "Inventory and rating of performance indicators and organisational features in metropolitan public transport: A worldwide Delphi survey," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 144-156.
    10. Goletz, Mirko & Haustein, Sonja & Wolking, Christina & L’Hostis, Alain, 2020. "Intermodality in European metropolises: The current state of the art, and the results of an expert survey covering Berlin, Copenhagen, Hamburg and Paris," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 109-122.
    11. Zhang, Junyi, 2020. "Transport policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats: A PASS approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 405-418.
    12. Krause, Jette & Thiel, Christian & Tsokolis, Dimitrios & Samaras, Zissis & Rota, Christian & Ward, Andy & Prenninger, Peter & Coosemans, Thierry & Neugebauer, Stephan & Verhoeve, Wim, 2020. "EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Christopher M. Weible & Daniel Nohrstedt & Paul Cairney & David P. Carter & Deserai A. Crow & Anna P. Durnová & Tanya Heikkila & Karin Ingold & Allan McConnell & Diane Stone, 2020. "COVID-19 and the policy sciences: initial reactions and perspectives," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 53(2), pages 225-241, June.
    14. Xylia, Maria & Silveira, Semida, 2017. "On the road to fossil-free public transport: The case of Swedish bus fleets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 397-412.
    15. Jennifer K. Pullium & Gordon S. Roble & Mark A. Raymond, 2014. "Emergency planning: Be prepared," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7523), pages 430-430, October.
    16. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    17. Charanwanitwong, Thanaphon & Fraszczyk, Anna, 2018. "Rail liberalisation in Europe and lessons for Thailand: Policy makers vs. academic views," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 421-440.
    18. Akin, Darcin & Kara, Derya, 2020. "Multicriteria analysis of planned intercity bus terminals in the metropolitan city of Istanbul, Turkey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 465-489.
    19. Zubaryeva, Alyona & Thiel, Christian & Barbone, Enrico & Mercier, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing factors for the identification of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe: expert opinion elicitation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1622-1637.
    20. Ülengin, Füsun & Işık, Mine & Ekici, Şule Önsel & Özaydın, Özay & Kabak, Özgür & Topçu, Y. İlker, 2018. "Policy developments for the reduction of climate change impacts by the transportation sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 36-50.
    21. Suman, Hemant K. & Bolia, Nomesh B. & Tiwari, Geetam, 2017. "Comparing public bus transport service attributes in Delhi and Mumbai: Policy implications for improving bus services in Delhi," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 63-74.
    22. Tisdell, Clement A., 2020. "Economic, social and political issues raised by the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 17-28.
    23. Junyi Zhang, 2021. "People’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic during its early stages and factors affecting those responses," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    24. Darcy, Simon & Burke, Paul Francis, 2018. "On the road again: The barriers and benefits of automobility for people with disability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 229-245.
    25. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days under restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 76-93.
    26. Epstein, Bryan & Givoni, Moshe, 2016. "Analyzing the gap between the QOS demanded by PT users and QOS supplied by service operators," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 622-637.
    27. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward, 2020. "Slowly coming out of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia: Implications for working from home and commuting trips by car and public transport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    28. Melander, Lisa & Dubois, Anna & Hedvall, Klas & Lind, Frida, 2019. "Future goods transport in Sweden 2050: Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 178-189.
    29. van der Pas, J.W.G.M. & Kwakkel, J.H. & Van Wee, B., 2012. "Evaluating Adaptive Policymaking using expert opinions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 311-325.
    30. Kester, Johannes & Noel, Lance & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2018. "Policy mechanisms to accelerate electric vehicle adoption: A qualitative review from the Nordic region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 719-731.
    31. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Noel, Lance & Kester, Johannes & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo, 2018. "Reviewing Nordic transport challenges and climate policy priorities: Expert perceptions of decarbonisation in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 532-542.
    32. Krause, Jette & Small, Mitchell J. & Haas, Armin & Jaeger, Carlo C., 2016. "An expert-based bayesian assessment of 2030 German new vehicle CO2 emissions and related costs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 197-208.
    33. Noel, Lance & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo & Kester, Johannes & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2019. "Navigating expert skepticism and consumer distrust: Rethinking the barriers to vehicle-to-grid (V2G) in the Nordic region," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-77.
    34. Nogués, Soledad & González-González, Esther & Cordera, Rubén, 2020. "New urban planning challenges under emerging autonomous mobility: evaluating backcasting scenarios and policies through an expert survey," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    35. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Cugueró-Escofet, Natàlia, 2020. "An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Kaili & Liu, Yicong & Mashrur, Sk Md & Loa, Patrick & Habib, Khandker Nurul, 2021. "COVid-19 influenced households’ Interrupted Travel Schedules (COVHITS) survey: Lessons from the fall 2020 cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 43-62.
    2. Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward & Beck, MatthewJ. & Balbontin, Camila, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on cost outlays for car and public transport commuting - The case of the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area after three months of restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 71-80.
    3. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2022. "Australia 6 months after COVID-19 restrictions- part 1: Changes to travel activity and attitude to measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 286-298.
    4. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Zhou, Huiyu & Wang, Yacan & Huscroft, Joseph R. & Bai, Kailing, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 and anti-pandemic policies on urban transport—an empirical study in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 135-149.
    6. Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Liu, Yu & Zheng, Yanting & Wei, Wei & Yang, Bo & Zhou, Meifang, 2021. "The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China’s transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 103-115.
    7. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2022. "Research frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 78-88.
    8. Loa, Patrick & Hossain, Sanjana & Mashrur, Sk. Md. & Liu, Yicong & Wang, Kaili & Ong, Felita & Habib, Khandker Nurul, 2021. "Exploring the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on modality profiles for non-mandatory trips in the Greater Toronto Area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 71-85.
    9. Currie, Graham & Jain, Taru & Aston, Laura, 2021. "Evidence of a post-COVID change in travel behaviour – Self-reported expectations of commuting in Melbourne," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 218-234.
    10. Li, Tao & Rong, Lili & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 226-238.
    11. An, Yunlong & Lin, Xi & Li, Meng & He, Fang, 2021. "Dynamic governance decisions on multi-modal inter-city travel during a large-scale epidemic spreading," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 29-42.
    12. Ruoso, Ana Cristina & Ribeiro, José Luis Duarte, 2022. "An assessment of barriers and solutions for the deployment of electric vehicles in the Brazilian market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 218-229.
    13. Siliang Luan & Qingfang Yang & Zhongtai Jiang & Huxing Zhou & Fanyun Meng, 2022. "Analyzing Commute Mode Choice Using the LCNL Model in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-26, April.
    14. Naveen, B.R. & Gurtoo, Anjula, 2022. "Public transport strategy and epidemic prevention framework in the Context of Covid-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 165-174.
    15. Balbontin, Camila & Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J., 2022. "Advanced modelling of commuter choice model and work from home during COVID-19 restrictions in Australia," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Riccardo Ceccato & Riccardo Rossi & Massimiliano Gastaldi, 2021. "Travel Demand Prediction during COVID-19 Pandemic: Educational and Working Trips at the University of Padova," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Li, Tao & Wang, Jiaoe & Huang, Jie & Yang, Wenyue & Chen, Zhuo, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on intercity travel in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 115-123.
    19. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Welfare costs of travel reductions within the United States due to COVID‐19," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(S1), pages 18-31, November.
    20. Chan, Ho-Yin & Chen, Anthony & Ma, Wei & Sze, Nang-Ngai & Liu, Xintao, 2021. "COVID-19, community response, public policy, and travel patterns: A tale of Hong Kong," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 173-184.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:103:y:2021:i:c:p:68-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.