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Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence

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  • Levy, Matthew R.
  • Tasoff, Joshua

Abstract

There is increasing evidence that people underestimate the magnitude of compounding interest. However, if people were aware of their inability to make such calculations they should demand services to ameliorate the consequences of such deficiencies. In a laboratory experiment, we find that people exhibit substantial exponential-growth bias but, more importantly, that they are overconfident in their ability to answer questions that involve exponential growth. They also exhibit overconfidence in their ability to use a spreadsheet to answer these questions. This evidence explains why a market solution to exponential-growth bias has not been forthcoming. Biased individuals have suboptimally low demand for tools and services that could improve their financial decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy, Matthew R. & Tasoff, Joshua, 2017. "Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:58:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2016.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. Gopi Shah Goda & Matthew R. Levy & Colleen Flaherty Manchester & Aaron Sojourner & Joshua Tasoff, 2015. "The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings," NBER Working Papers 21482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Levy, Matthew & Tasoff, Joshua, 2016. "Exponential-growth bias and lifecycle consumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102087, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Pannenberg, Markus & Friehe, Tim, 2019. "Does it really get better with age? Life-cycle patterns of confidence in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203497, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2021. "Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    3. Shin, Su Hyun & Kim, Kyoung Tae & Seay, Martin, 2020. "Sources of information and portfolio allocation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2019. "Overconfidence over the lifespan: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. David Klenert & Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Brian O’Callaghan, 2020. "Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 751-778, August.
    6. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. McGowan, Féidhlim & Lunn, Pete & Robertson, Deirdre, 2019. "Underestimation of money growth and pensions: Experimental investigations," Papers WP611, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2020. "Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13257, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Henning Cordes & Bryan Foltice & Thomas Langer, 2019. "Misperception of Exponential Growth: Are People Aware of Their Errors?," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 261-280, December.
    10. Ritwik Banerjee & Priyama Majumdar, 2023. "Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID‐19 spread and economic expectation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 653-689, April.
    11. Königsheim, C. & Lukas, M. & Nöth, M., 2018. "Individual preferences and the exponential growth bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 352-369.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exponential-growth bias; Overconfidence; Financial literacy; Overestimation; Overprecision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection

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