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Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Shah Goda, Gopi

    (Stanford University)

  • Levy, Matthew R.

    (London School of Economics)

  • Flaherty Manchester, Colleen

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Sojourner, Aaron

    (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

  • Tasoff, Joshua

    (Claremont Graduate University)

Abstract

In a nationally-representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey-based elicitations of exponential-growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Shah Goda, Gopi & Levy, Matthew R. & Flaherty Manchester, Colleen & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua, 2018. "Predicting Retirement Savings Using Survey Measures of Exponential-Growth Bias and Present Bias," IZA Discussion Papers 11762, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11762
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    Cited by:

    1. David Blake & John Pickles, 2021. "Mental Time Travel and Retirement Savings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Manchester, Colleen Flaherty & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua, 2020. "Who is a passive saver under opt-in and auto-enrollment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 301-321.
    3. Colleen Flaherty Manchester, 2019. "Retirement plan type and worker mobility," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 461-461, October.
    4. Joshua Tasoff & Wenjie Zhang, 2022. "The Performance of Time-Preference and Risk-Preference Measures in Surveys," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1149-1173, February.
    5. Gilles E. Gignac & Elizabeth Ooi, 2022. "Measurement error in research on financial literacy: How much error is there and how does it influence effect size estimates?," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 938-956, June.
    6. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions," NBER Working Papers 23625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Isha Chawla & Joseph Svec, 2023. "Household savings and present bias among Chinese couples: A household bargaining approach," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 648-672, January.
    8. Goda, Gopi Shah & Levy, Matthew R. & Flaherty Manchester, Colleen & Sojourner, Aaron & Tasoff, Joshua & Xiao, Jiusi, 2023. "Are retirement planning tools substitutes or complements to financial capability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 561-573.
    9. Banerjee, Ritwik & Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Majumdar, Priyama, 2020. "Exponential-Growth Prediction Bias and Compliance with Safety Measures in the Times of COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13257, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Gallego-Losada, Rocío & Montero-Navarro, Antonio & Rodríguez-Sánchez, José-Luis & González-Torres, Thais, 2022. "Retirement planning and financial literacy, at the crossroads. A bibliometric analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Thomas Meissner & Xavier Gassmann & Corinne Faure & Joachim Schleich, 2023. "Individual characteristics associated with risk and time preferences: A multi country representative survey," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 77-107, February.
    12. Olckers, Matthew, 2021. "On track for retirement?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 76-88.
    13. Callis, Zoe & Gerrans, Paul & Walker, Dana L. & Gignac, Gilles E., 2023. "The association between intelligence and financial literacy: A conceptual and meta-analytic review," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    survey-based elicitations; exponential-growth bias; present bias; financial literacy; quasi-hyperbolic discounting; retirement savings; household finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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