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Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Malaysia-Singapore commodity trade

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Aftab, Muhammad
  • Harvey, Hanafiah

Abstract

One previous research examined the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysian trade balance with each of its 11 largest partners using the linear and nonlinear ARDL models. No significant impact was discovered in the Malaysian model with its largest partner, Singapore. In this paper when we disaggregate their trade flows by 65 industries which conduct 91% of the trade, we discover the short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of almost all industries, adjustment asymmetry in 31 industries, short-run significant impact or cumulative asymmetric effect in 10 industries, and significant long-run asymmetric effects in 20 industries. The two largest industries, i.e., Petroleum and Electrical machinery with 40% share of trade were found to benefit from ringgit depreciation but not hurt by ringgit appreciation.

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2016. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Malaysia-Singapore commodity trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PB), pages 211-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:14:y:2016:i:pb:p:211-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2016.10.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production in Emerging Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1442-1459, May.
    3. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2021. "Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of India: An Asymmetric Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(1), pages 71-88, February.
    5. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2018. "Malaysia-EU trade at the industry level: Is there an asymmetric response to exchange rate volatility?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 425-455, August.
    7. Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi & Vahid Mohamad Taghvaee & Mohamad Nasiri & Abbas Assari Arani, 2020. "Sustainable development and openness in oil-exporting countries: green growth and brown growth," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Abubakar, Fahrurrazi & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Palm oil export : is it price led or exchange rate led? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 111229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Parray Waseem A. & Wani Suadat H. & Yasmin Effat, 2022. "Determinants of the Trade Balance in India. Evidence from a Post-Liberalisation Period," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 32(4), pages 16-37, December.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Motavallizadeh-Ardakani, Amid, 2017. "On the value of the dollar and income inequality: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 64-78.
    11. Wei Sun & Kuhelika De, 2019. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy, And The U.S. Economy: Evidence From A Favar Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 552-568, January.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2020. "Asymmetric causality between stock returns and usual hedges: An industry-level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    13. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    14. Aftab, Muhammad & Ahmad, Rubi & Ismail, Izlin, 2018. "Examining the uncovered equity parity in the emerging financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 233-242.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear ARDL; Asymmetry; 65 Industries; Malaysia; Singapore;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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