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Choice of Prizes Allocated by Multiple Lotteries with Endogenously Determined Probabilities

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  • Rapoport, Amnon
  • Chung Lo, Alison King
  • Zwick, Rami

Abstract

We study a class of interactive decision making situations in which each agent must choose to participate in one of several lotteries with commonly known prizes. In contrast to the widely studied paradigm of choice between gambles in individual decision making under risk, the probability of winning a prize in each of the lotteries in our study is endogenously determined. In particular, for each lottery, it is known to decrease in the number of agents choosing to play that lottery. We construct the Nash equilibrium solution to this game and then test it experimentally in the special case where each lottery yields only a single prize. The results show a remarkable degree of tacit coordination that supports the equilibrium solution under the assumption of common risk-aversion. However, this coordination is not achieved via individual level randomization. Rather, the entry decisions of most of the subjects can be characterized by local adjustments to the outcome of the previous iteration of the same game along the lines suggested by anticipatory learning models.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.

Volume (Year): 87 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 180-206

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:87:y:2002:i:1:p:180-206

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Cited by:
  1. Blume, A. & DeJong, D.V. & Maier, M., 2005. "Cognition in Spatial Dispersion Games," Discussion Paper 2005-58, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Rami Zwick & Amnon Rapoport & Alison King Chung Lo, 2001. "Behavioral Strategies in Repeated Pure Coordination Games," Experimental 0110004, EconWPA.
  3. Camerer, Colin F. & Ho, Teck-Hua & Chong, Juin-Kuan, 2002. "Sophisticated Experience-Weighted Attraction Learning and Strategic Teaching in Repeated Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 137-188, May.

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