IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v98y2019ic2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global downside risk and equity returns

Author

Listed:
  • Atilgan, Yigit
  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Demirtas, K. Ozgur
  • Gunaydin, A. Doruk

Abstract

This paper reexamines the relation between various downside risk measures and future equity returns in a global context that spans 26 developed markets. We find that there is no significantly positive relation between systematic downside risk and the cross-section of equity returns, and in fact, this relation is mostly negative. Moreover, stock-specific risk measures such as lower partial moment or extreme left tail risk measures such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall have a negative predictive relation with future equity returns. These negative relations are weaker but still observable for value-weighted portfolios. Focusing on additional test assets indicates a significantly negative relation between downside risk and future returns at the portfolio level whereas this relation is flat at the equity index level.

Suggested Citation

  • Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2019. "Global downside risk and equity returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:98:y:2019:i:c:2
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102065
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560619303717
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102065?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2007. "Liquidity and Expected Returns: Lessons from Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1783-1831, November.
    2. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2014. "Editor's Choice Tail Risk and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2841-2871.
    3. Amaya, Diego & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2015. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-167.
    4. Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2014. "Hybrid Tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns: When Does the Tail Wag the Dog?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 206-246.
    5. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    6. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Abstract: Capital Market Equilibrium in a Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 635-635, November.
    7. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
    8. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
    11. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    13. Huang, Wei & Liu, Qianqiu & Ghon Rhee, S. & Wu, Feng, 2012. "Extreme downside risk and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1492-1502.
    14. Hogan, William W. & Warren, James M., 1974. "Toward the Development of an Equilibrium Capital-Market Model Based on Semivariance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, January.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    16. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    17. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    18. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    19. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    20. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    21. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    22. Lee, Kuan-Hui, 2011. "The world price of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 136-161, January.
    23. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    24. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2009. "Is There an Intertemporal Relation between Downside Risk and Expected Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 883-909, August.
    25. Arzac, Enrique R. & Bawa, Vijay S., 1977. "Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 277-288, May.
    26. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    27. Harlow, W. V. & Rao, Ramesh K. S., 1989. "Asset Pricing in a Generalized Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 285-311, September.
    28. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    29. Martijn Cremers & Michael Halling & David Weinbaum, 2015. "Aggregate Jump and Volatility Risk in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 577-614, April.
    30. Yigit Atilgan & K. Ozgur Demirtas & A. Doruk Gunaydin, 2020. "Downside beta and the cross section of equity returns: A decade later," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(2), pages 316-347, March.
    31. Elena Asparouhova & Hendrik Bessembinder & Ivalina Kalcheva, 2013. "Noisy Prices and Inference Regarding Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 665-714, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adam Zaremba, 2019. "The Cross Section of Country Equity Returns: A Review of Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    2. Lee, Kuan-Hui & Yang, Cheol-Won, 2022. "The world price of tail risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Stoja, Evarist & Polanski, Arnold & Nguyen, Linh H. & Pereverzin, Aleksandr, 2023. "Does systematic tail risk matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Value-at-risk and the cross section of emerging market hedge fund returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Rutkowska-Ziarko, Anna & Markowski, Lesław & Pyke, Christopher & Amin, Saqib, 2022. "Conventional and downside CAPM: The case of London stock exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Pelin Bengitöz & Mehmet Umutlu, 2023. "Are return predictors of industrial equity indexes common across regions?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 396-418, September.
    7. Liu, Jinjing, 2023. "A novel downside beta and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Xiong, Xiong & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Downside risk and the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Pablo Cristini Guedes & Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2023. "Risk measures-based cluster methods for finance," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-56, March.
    10. Xu, Yahua & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Liguo, 2020. "Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 605-619.
    11. Hussain, Shahzad & Akbar, Muhammad & Malik, Qaisar & Ahmad, Tanveer & Abbas, Nasir, 2021. "Downside Systematic Risk in Pakistani Stock Market: Role of Corporate Governance, Financial Liberalization and Investor Sentiment," CAFE Working Papers 14, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    2. Wang, Chen & Xiong, Xiong & Shen, Dehua, 2022. "Tail risks, firm characteristics, and stock returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2022. "Realized semibetas: Disentangling “good” and “bad” downside risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 227-246.
    4. Harris, Richard D.F. & Nguyen, Linh H. & Stoja, Evarist, 2019. "Systematic extreme downside risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 128-142.
    5. Eom, Cheoljun & Eom, Yunsung & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Left-tail momentum and tail properties of return distributions: A case of Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Ji Cao & Marc Oliver Rieger & Lei Zhao, 2019. "Safety First, Loss Probability, and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2019-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    7. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    8. Sean A. Anthonisz & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2017. "Asset Pricing with Downside Liquidity Risks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2549-2572, August.
    9. Liu, Jinjing, 2023. "A novel downside beta and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Bi, Jia & Zhu, Yifeng, 2020. "Value at risk, cross-sectional returns and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-18.
    13. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    14. Lian, Ziying & Cai, Jun & Webb, Robert I., 2020. "Oil stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Asgar Ali & K. N. Badhani, 2023. "Tail risk, beta anomaly, and demand for lottery: what explains cross-sectional variations in equity returns?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 775-804, August.
    16. Cao, Ji & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Zhao, Lei, 2023. "Safety first, loss probability, and the cross section of expected stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 345-369.
    17. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "The memory of stock return volatility: Asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    18. Stoja, Evarist & Polanski, Arnold & Nguyen, Linh H. & Pereverzin, Aleksandr, 2023. "Does systematic tail risk matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    19. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Downside Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1191-1239.
      • Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Lu, Zhongjin & Murray, Scott, 2019. "Bear beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 736-760.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downside risk; Tail risk; Left-tail momentum; Equity returns; International finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:98:y:2019:i:c:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.