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The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment

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  • Ciminelli, Gabriele
  • Rogers, John
  • Wu, Wenbin

Abstract

We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment. We apply a novel variant of the shock identification procedure in Bu et al. (2021) to decompose observed U.S. monetary policy surprises into pure monetary policy shock and information news shock components. An increase in interest rates driven by a pure monetary policy shock leads to large and persistent outflows from emerging markets (EMs) and to a lesser extent global funds. On the other hand, increases in interest rates driven by positive information news shocks (i) do not cause outflows from EM funds, and (ii) lead investors to reallocate capital out of safe U.S. bond funds and into growth-sensitive U.S. and global equity funds. We attribute these differences to the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Pure monetary policy shocks heighten risk aversion, while information news shocks lower uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciminelli, Gabriele & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2022. "The effects of U.S. monetary policy on international mutual fund investment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622000791
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102676
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    2. Dr. Romain Baeriswyl & Alex Oktay & Dr. Marc-Antoine Ramelet, 2023. "Exchange rate shocks and equity prices: the role of currency denomination," Working Papers 2023-05, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Felipe Beltrán, 2023. "Global monetary policy surprises and their transmission to emerging market economies: an external VAR analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 975, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani & Filippo Natoli, 2023. "Flight to climatic safety: local natural disasters and global portfolio flows," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1420, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Reserve; Emerging Markets; Monetary Policy Shocks; Information Effects; Investment Funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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