IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v117y2021ics0261560621000899.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes and foreign direct investment: A gravity analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Harms, Philipp
  • Knaze, Jakub

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel dataset on bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes. The new dataset accounts for the fact that officially pegging to one currency is uninformative about the exchange rate regime prevailing vis-à-vis other currencies, and it allows characterizing bilateral exchange rate regimes based on countries’ ex-ante announcements rather than ex-post observations. We use this data to estimate the effect of expected exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI). Starting from a simple model that suggests that announced exchange rate stability enhances bilateral FDI flows, we provide empirical evidence that lends support to this claim: countries that are linked by a non-floating exchange rate regime seem to attract significantly more FDI from each other. In particular, relationships with no separate legal tender like currency unions are most favorable to FDI in both developed and developing countries. Moreover, we find substantial differences between developing and developed countries, with the effect of announced exchange rate stability being much stronger for the former group than for the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Harms, Philipp & Knaze, Jakub, 2021. "Bilateral de-jure exchange rate regimes and foreign direct investment: A gravity analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:117:y:2021:i:c:s0261560621000899
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560621000899
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102438?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Schiavo, 2007. "Common currencies and FDI flows," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(3), pages 536-560, July.
    2. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    3. Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner & Yoto V. Yotov & Thomas Zylkin, 2017. "The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 6464, CESifo.
    4. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    5. Isabel Faeth, 2009. "Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment – A Tale Of Nine Theoretical Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 165-196, February.
    6. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Maylis Coupet & Thierry Mayer, 2007. "Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 764-782, May.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    8. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May.
    9. Dorn, Sabrina & Egger, Peter H., 2013. "Fixed currency regimes and the time pattern of trade effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 120-123.
    10. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    11. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    12. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    13. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2007. "Estimating models of complex FDI: Are there third-country effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 260-281, September.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    15. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 589-630, September.
    16. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    17. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    18. Ronald B. Davies & Delia Ionascu & Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Time-Invariant Variables on FDI with Fixed Effects," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(3), pages 381-407, October.
    19. K. M. Wacker, 2016. "(When) Should We Use Foreign Direct Investment Data to Measure the Activities of Multinational Corporations? Theory and Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 980-999, November.
    20. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    21. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    22. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    24. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Glen R. Waddell & Helen T. Naughton, 2019. "FDI in Space: Spatial Autoregressive Relationships in Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 2, pages 55-88, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Mr. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Working Papers 1992/020, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    27. Mario Larch & Joschka Wanner & Yoto V. Yotov & Thomas Zylkin, 2019. "Currency Unions and Trade: A PPML Re‐assessment with High‐dimensional Fixed Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(3), pages 487-510, June.
    28. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Hines Jr., James R., 2009. "Which countries become tax havens?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(9-10), pages 1058-1068, October.
    29. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    30. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility, and Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(4), pages 890-922, December.
    31. Andrew Abbott & David O. Cushman & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 95-107, February.
    32. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    33. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mianshan Lai & Jia Hou, 2023. "Let us misinvoice more? The effect of de jure capital controls on trade misinvoicing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2157-2186, July.
    2. Hou, Jia & Knaze, Jakub, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Regimes on Business Cycle Synchronization: A Robust Analysis," MPRA Paper 95182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    4. Sophie Therese Schneider & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2022. "Explaining the global landscape of foreign direct investment: Knowledge capital, gravity, and the role of culture and institutions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3080-3108, October.
    5. Harms, Philipp & Knaze, Jakub, 2021. "Effective Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242340, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Gurova, Irina (Гурова, Ирина), 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Russia: Empirical Study [Факторы Прямых Иностранных Инвестиций В России: Эмпирическое Исследование]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 36-61, December.
    7. Laurent Didier, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes, trade in raw materials and exporters behavior: Evidence from some Small Island Developing States (SIDS)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2894-2919.
    8. Jia Hou & Jakub Knaze, 2022. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Synchronization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 523-564, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    2. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2016. "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Post-Print hal-01549902, HAL.
    3. Santana-Gallego, Maria & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2019. "International trade, exchange rate regimes, and financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 85-95.
    4. Lu, Dong & Liu, Jialin & Zhou, Hang, 2022. "Global financial conditions, capital flows and the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Laurent Didier, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes, trade in raw materials and exporters behavior: Evidence from some Small Island Developing States (SIDS)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2894-2919.
    6. Perekunah B. Eregha, 2020. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Foreign Direct Investment Flow in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 85-99, January.
    7. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2022. "Exchange arrangements and economic growth. What relationship is there?," MPRA Paper 113897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2017. "Currency unions, trade and heterogeneity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88487, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Carl Grekou, 2016. "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Raphael Chiappini & François Viaud, 2021. "Macroeconomic, institutional, and sectoral determinants of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 404-433, August.
    12. Alexis CRUZ-RODRIGUEZ, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 377-392, June.
    13. Christoph Fischer, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Globalization Institute Working Papers 87, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2015. "Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of Monetary Policy Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 33-66, October.
    15. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    16. Mohammad Tarequl Hasan Chowdhury & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2015. "Persistence, Capital Account Openness, and Financial Sector Health in Exchange Rate Regime Choice," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(294), pages 279-299, September.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Charles van Marrewijk & Gus Garita, 2008. "Countries of a Feather flock together," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-067/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Sep 2008.
    19. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Martínez-Serrano, 2015. "The Uneven Impact of Continental Boundaries on Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 237-257, April.
    20. Lavallée, Emmanuelle & Lochard, Julie, 2015. "The comparative effects of independence on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 613-632.
    21. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Poelhekke, Steven, 2010. "Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from Non-Stationary Sector-Level Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 8079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; Foreign direct investment; Gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:117:y:2021:i:c:s0261560621000899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.