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Has falling crime invited gentrification?

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  • Ellen, Ingrid Gould
  • Horn, Keren Mertens
  • Reed, Davin

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, central city crime has fallen dramatically in the United States. We explore the extent to which this trend may have contributed to gentrification. Using confidential census microdata, we show that reductions in central city violent crime are associated with increases in the probability that high-income and college-educated households move into central city neighborhoods, including low-income neighborhoods, instead of the suburbs. We then use neighborhood-level crime and home purchase data for five major U.S. cities and find that falling neighborhood crime is associated with increasing numbers and shares of high-income movers choosing low-income central city neighborhoods.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellen, Ingrid Gould & Horn, Keren Mertens & Reed, Davin, 2019. "Has falling crime invited gentrification?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:46:y:2019:i:c:s1051137719300658
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2019.101636
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    Cited by:

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    2. Porreca, Zachary, 2023. "Gentrification, gun violence, and drug markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 235-256.
    3. Victor Couture & Cecile Gaubert & Jessie Handbury & Erik Hurst, 2019. "Income Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting," NBER Working Papers 26142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Boustan, Leah & Margo, Robert A. & Miller, Matthew M. & Reeves, James & Steil, Justin, 2023. "JUE Insight: Condominium development does not lead to gentrification," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Arthur Acolin & Rebecca J. Walter & Marie Skubak Tillyer & Johanna Lacoe & Raphael Bostic, 2022. "Spatial spillover effects of crime on private investment at nearby micro-places," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(4), pages 834-850, March.
    6. Kasey Zapatka & Brenden Beck, 2021. "Does demand lead supply? Gentrifiers and developers in the sequence of gentrification, New York City 2009–2016," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(11), pages 2348-2368, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Gentrification; Neighborhood choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R22 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Other Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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