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The cross section of the monetary policy announcement premium

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  • Ai, Hengjie
  • Han, Leyla Jianyu
  • Pan, Xuhui Nick
  • Xu, Lai

Abstract

Using the expected option-implied variance reduction to measure the sensitivity of stock returns to monetary policy announcement surprises, this paper shows monetary policy announcements require significant risk compensation in the cross section of equity returns. We develop a parsimonious equilibrium model in which FOMC announcements reveal the Federal Reserve’s private information about its interest-rate target, which affects the private sector’s expectation about the long-run growth-rate of the economy. Our model accounts for the dynamics of implied variances and the cross section of the monetary policy announcement premium realized around FOMC announcement days.

Suggested Citation

  • Ai, Hengjie & Han, Leyla Jianyu & Pan, Xuhui Nick & Xu, Lai, 2022. "The cross section of the monetary policy announcement premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 247-276.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:143:y:2022:i:1:p:247-276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.07.002
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    4. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.
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    6. Alex Hsu & Indrajit Mitra & Linghang Zeng, 2023. "The Profitability Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOMC announcement; Implied variance; Cross section; Equity returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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