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M&A rumors about unlisted firms

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  • Alperovych, Yan
  • Cumming, Douglas
  • Czellar, Veronika
  • Groh, Alexander

Abstract

We examine 68,044 completed or abandoned M&A transactions involving unlisted targets to determine the effect of transaction rumors on deal-closing propensity and transaction values. Estimation is challenging because rumors may be spread on purpose or emerge accidentally while transaction values are only observable for completed deals and no regulation requires to disclose them. We use indirect inference to overcome these challenges. We find that (a) M&A rumors are deal breakers, (b) rumored but closed deals have higher transaction values, and (c) the combined economic impact of (a) and (b) is negative: in expectation rumors destroy about 32% of transaction value.

Suggested Citation

  • Alperovych, Yan & Cumming, Douglas & Czellar, Veronika & Groh, Alexander, 2021. "M&A rumors about unlisted firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1324-1339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:142:y:2021:i:3:p:1324-1339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Kaiyi & Yuan, Xianghui & Wang, Chen & Hou, Wenxuan, 2022. "Silence is golden? Responses to rumors by Chinese listed firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    2. Cumming, Douglas J. & Firth, Christopher & Gathergood, John & Stewart, Neil, 2021. "Covid, work-from-home, and securities misconduct," CFS Working Paper Series 666, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Andrea Orame & Daniele Pianeselli, 2023. "Thinking the green transition: evidence from the automotive industry," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 767, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Ye Cai & Hersh Shefrin, 2021. "Risk and the Market’s Reaction to M&A Announcements," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Wu, Chunying & Xiong, Xiong & Gao, Ya & Zhang, Jin, 2022. "Does social media distort price discovery? Evidence from rumor clarifications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Andres, Christian & Bazhutov, Dmitry & Cumming, Douglas J. & Limbach, Peter, 2021. "Does Speculative News Hurt Productivity? Evidence from Takeover Rumors," CFR Working Papers 21-02, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mergers; Acquisitions; Rumors; Unlisted firms; Indirect inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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