IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v109y2013i3p640-660.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dividend month premium

Author

Listed:
  • Hartzmark, Samuel M.
  • Solomon, David H.

Abstract

We find an asset pricing anomaly whereby companies have positive abnormal returns in months when they are predicted to issue a dividend. Abnormal returns in predicted dividend months are high relative to other companies and relative to dividend-paying companies in months without a predicted dividend, making risk-based explanations unlikely. The anomaly is as large as the value premium, but less volatile. The premium is consistent with price pressure from dividend-seeking investors. Measures of liquidity and demand for dividends are associated with larger price increases in the period before the ex-day (when there is no news about the dividend) and larger reversals afterward.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2013. "The dividend month premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 640-660.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:109:y:2013:i:3:p:640-660
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.02.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X13000585
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.02.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    3. Michaely, Roni & Vila, Jean-Luc & Wang, Jiang, 1996. "A Model of Trading Volume with Tax-Induced Heterogeneous Valuation and Transaction Costs," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 340-371, October.
    4. Green, Richard C. & Hollifield, Burton, 2003. "The personal-tax advantages of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 175-216, February.
    5. Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1986. "Tax-induced trading around ex-dividend days," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 287-319, July.
    6. Fuller, Kathleen P. & Goldstein, Michael A., 2011. "Do dividends matter more in declining markets?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-473, June.
    7. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    8. Karpoff, Jonathan M. & Walkling, Ralph A., 1990. "Dividend capture in NASDAQ stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 39-65.
    9. Leonie Bell & Tim Jenkinson, 2002. "New Evidence of the Impact of Dividend Taxation and on the Identity of the Marginal Investor," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1321-1346, June.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    11. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
    12. Joan Farre-Mensa & Roni Michaely & Martin Schmalz, 2014. "Payout Policy," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 75-134, December.
    13. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    14. John R. Graham & Roni Michaely & Michael R. Roberts, 2003. "Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2611-2636, December.
    15. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    16. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    17. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    18. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "A Catering Theory of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1125-1165, June.
    19. Litzenberger, Robert H & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1982. "The Effects of Dividends on Common Stock Prices: Tax Effects or Information Effects?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 429-443, May.
    20. Doron Nissim & Amir Ziv, 2001. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2111-2133, December.
    21. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    22. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
    23. Avner Kalay & Roni Michaely, 2000. "Dividends and Taxes: A Re-Examination," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(2), Summer.
    24. Li, Wei & Lie, Erik, 2006. "Dividend changes and catering incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 293-308, May.
    25. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    26. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2005. "Dividend Changes Do Not Signal Changes in Future Profitability," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1659-1682, September.
    27. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    28. Miller, Merton H & Scholes, Myron S, 1982. "Dividends and Taxes: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1118-1141, December.
    29. Frank, Murray & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1998. "Why do stock prices drop by less than the value of the dividend? Evidence from a country without taxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 161-188, February.
    30. Benartzi, Shlomo & Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1007-1034, July.
    31. Litzenberger, Robert H & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1980. "Dividends, Short Selling Restrictions, Tax-Induced Investor Clienteles and Market Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 469-482, May.
    32. Yi Liu & Samuel H. Szewczyk & Zaher Zantout, 2008. "Underreaction to Dividend Reductions and Omissions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 987-1020, April.
    33. Franklin Allen & Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2000. "A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2499-2536, December.
    34. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    35. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    36. Karl Felixson & Eva Liljeblom, 2008. "Evidence of ex-dividend trading by investor tax category," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21.
    37. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1970. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 68-74, February.
    38. Michaely, Roni & Vila, Jean-Luc, 1996. "Trading Volume with Private Valuation: Evidence from the Ex-dividend Day," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 471-509.
    39. McDonald, Robert L, 2001. "Cross-Border Investing with Tax Arbitrage: The Case of German Dividend Tax Credits," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 617-657.
    40. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    41. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 1996. "Reversal of fortune Dividend signaling and the disappearance of sustained earnings growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 341-371, March.
    42. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
    43. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    44. Bo Becker & Zoran Ivković & Scott Weisbenner, 2011. "Local Dividend Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 655-683, April.
    45. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    46. John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2006. "Do Dividend Clienteles Exist? Evidence on Dividend Preferences of Retail Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1305-1336, June.
    47. Heston, Steven L. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Seasonality in the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 418-445, February.
    48. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Christopher R. Blake, 2005. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Effects and Ex-Dividend-Day Price Behavior: Evidence From Taxable Versus Nontaxable Closed-End Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 579-586, August.
    49. B. Douglas Berhheim, 1991. "Tax Policy and the Dividend Puzzle," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(4), pages 455-476, Winter.
    50. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    51. John R. Graham & Jennifer L. Koski & Uri Loewenstein, 2006. "Information Flow and Liquidity around Anticipated and Unanticipated Dividend Announcements," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2301-2336, September.
    52. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 1998. "Taxes, Financing Decisions, and Firm Value," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 819-843, June.
    53. Karpoff, Jonathan M. & Walkling, Ralph A., 1988. "Short-term trading around ex-dividend days : Additional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 291-298, September.
    54. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-590, July.
    55. Thaler, Richard, 1980. "Toward a positive theory of consumer choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-60, March.
    56. John, Kose & Williams, Joseph, 1985. "Dividends, Dilution, and Taxes: A Signalling Equilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1053-1070, September.
    57. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    58. David A. Dubofsky, 1992. "A Market Microstructure Explanation of Ex-Day Abnormal Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 21(4), Winter.
    59. Green, Richard C. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1999. "Ex-day behavior with dividend preference and limitations to short-term arbitrage: the case of Swedish lottery bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 145-187, August.
    60. James A. Campbell & William Beranek, 1955. "Stock Price Behavior On Ex‐Dividend Dates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 425-429, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harris, Lawrence E. & Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2015. "Juicing the dividend yield: Mutual funds and the demand for dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 433-451.
    2. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
    3. Clemens Sialm, 2006. "Investment Taxes and Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 12146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Frankfurter, George M. & Wood, Bob Jr., 2002. "Dividend policy theories and their empirical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 111-138.
    5. Vassilis A. Efthymiou & George N. Leledakis, 2014. "The price impact of the disposition effect on the ex-dividend day of NYSE and AMEX common stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 711-724, April.
    6. Fuller, Kathleen P. & Goldstein, Michael A., 2011. "Do dividends matter more in declining markets?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-473, June.
    7. Lee, Yi-Tsung & Liu, Yu-Jane & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2006. "Taxes and dividend clientele: Evidence from trading and ownership structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-246, January.
    8. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2011. "Short selling around dividend announcements and ex-dividend days," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 628-639, June.
    9. Michael Dempsey, 2015. "Stock Markets, Investments and Corporate Behavior:A Conceptual Framework of Understanding," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number p1007.
    10. Jakob, Keith J. & Ma, Tongshu, 2007. "Are ex[hyphen (true graphic)]day dividend clientele effects dead? Dividend yield versus dividend size," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 718-735, December.
    11. Asimakopoulos, Panagiotis N. & Tsangarakis, Nickolaos V. & Tsiritakis, Emmanuel D., 2015. "Price adjustment method and ex-dividend day returns in a different institutional setting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-12.
    12. Chen, Hung-Ling & Chow, Edward H. & Shiu, Cheng-Yi, 2013. "Ex-dividend prices and investor trades: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 39-65.
    13. Paudel, Shishir & Silveri, Sabatino (Dino) & Wu, Mark, 2022. "Investor sentiment and asset prices: Evidence from the ex-day," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Castillo, Augusto & Jakob, Keith, 2006. "The Chilean ex-dividend day," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 105-118, September.
    15. Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Göran & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2014. "Direct evidence of dividend tax clienteles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-12.
    16. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    17. Kim, Soojung & Park, Soon Hong & Suh, Jungwon, 2018. "A J-shaped cross-sectional relation between dividends and firm value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 857-877.
    18. Maria Borges, 2008. "The Ex-Dividend Day Stock Price Behavior: The Case of Portugal," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 15-30, March.
    19. De Cesari, Amedeo & Huang-Meier, Winifred, 2015. "Dividend changes and stock price informativeness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-17.
    20. Hue Hwa Au Yong & Christine Brown & Chloe Choy Yeing Ho, 2014. "Off-Market Buybacks in Australia: Evidence of Abnormal Trading around Key Dates," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 551-585, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mispricing; Dividends; Behavioral finance; Price pressure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:109:y:2013:i:3:p:640-660. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.