IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v40y2014icp165-181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Weiß, Gregor N.F.
  • Neumann, Sascha
  • Bostandzic, Denefa

Abstract

This paper analyzes the systemic risk effects of bank mergers to test the “concentration-fragility” hypothesis. We use the marginal expected shortfall as well as the lower tail dependence between a bank’s stock returns and a relevant bank sector index to capture the merger-related change in an acquirer’s contribution to systemic risk. In our empirical analysis of a dataset of international domestic and cross-border mergers, we find clear evidence for a significant increase in the merging banks’, the combined banks’ as well as their competitors’ contribution to systemic risk following mergers, thus confirming the “concentration-fragility” hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Neumann, Sascha & Bostandzic, Denefa, 2014. "Systemic risk and bank consolidation: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 165-181.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:165-181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613004536
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.11.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rafael Schmidt & Ulrich Stadtmüller, 2006. "Non‐parametric Estimation of Tail Dependence," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 33(2), pages 307-335, June.
    2. José Campa & Ignacio Hernando, 2008. "The Reaction by Industry Insiders to M&As in the European Financial Industry," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 127-146, April.
    3. Acharya, Viral V. & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2007. "Too many to fail--An analysis of time-inconsistency in bank closure policies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    5. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Anjan V. Thakor, 2000. "Can Relationship Banking Survive Competition?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 679-713, April.
    6. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    7. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    8. Santiago Carbo-Valverde & Edward J. Kane & Francisco Rodriguez-Fernandez, 2012. "Regulatory Arbitrage in Cross-Border Banking Mergers within the EU," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1609-1629, December.
    9. Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010. "The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
    10. Caminal, Ramon & Matutes, Carmen, 2002. "Market power and banking failures," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1341-1361, November.
    11. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    12. Yermack, David, 1996. "Higher market valuation of companies with a small board of directors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 185-211, February.
    13. S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
    14. Lewis, Jeffrey B. & Linzer, Drew A., 2005. "Estimating Regression Models in Which the Dependent Variable Is Based on Estimates," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 345-364.
    15. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    16. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Kane, Edward J. & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Determinants of deposit-insurance adoption and design," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-438, July.
    17. Rüdiger Fahlenbrach & Robert Prilmeier & René M. Stulz, 2012. "This Time Is the Same: Using Bank Performance in 1998 to Explain Bank Performance during the Recent Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2139-2185, December.
    18. Djankov, Simeon & La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei, 2008. "The law and economics of self-dealing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 430-465, June.
    19. Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000. "Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
    20. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    21. Santiago Carbo-Valverde & Edward Kane & Francisco Rodriguez-Fernandez, 2008. "Evidence of Differences in the Effectiveness of Safety-Net Management in European Union Countries," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 151-176, December.
    22. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 606-610, May.
    23. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    24. Allen Berger, 2000. "The Integration of the Financial Services Industry," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 25-45.
    25. Aebi, Vincent & Sabato, Gabriele & Schmid, Markus, 2012. "Risk management, corporate governance, and bank performance in the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3213-3226.
    26. Vallascas, Francesco & Hagendorff, Jens, 2011. "The impact of European bank mergers on bidder default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 902-915, April.
    27. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
    28. Söhnke M. Bartram & Gregory Brown & René M. Stulz, 2012. "Why Are U.S. Stocks More Volatile?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1329-1370, August.
    29. Kane, Edward J, 2000. "Incentives for Banking Megamergers: What Motives Might Regulators Infer from Event-Study Evidence?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 671-701, August.
    30. Benston, George J & Hunter, William C & Wall, Larry D, 1995. "Motivations for Bank Mergers and Acquisitions: Enhancing the Deposit Insurance Put Option versus Earnings Diversification," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 777-788, August.
    31. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
    32. Mayer,Colin & Vives,Xavier (ed.), 1993. "Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521443975.
    33. Holger Spamann, 2010. "The "Antidirector Rights Index" Revisited," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 467-486, February.
    34. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    35. Eve Chiapello & A. Hurand, 2011. "Contribution," Post-Print hal-00681170, HAL.
    36. Wagner, Wolf, 2010. "Diversification at financial institutions and systemic crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 373-386, July.
    37. Furfine, Craig H. & Rosen, Richard J., 2011. "Mergers increase default risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 832-849, September.
    38. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2004. "Financial Intermediaries and Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1023-1061, July.
    40. Barth,James R. & Caprio,Gerard & Levine,Ross, 2008. "Rethinking Bank Regulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521709309.
    41. Alexandra Dias & Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Testing for structural changes in exchange rates' dependence beyond linear correlation," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 619-637.
    42. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
    43. Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
    44. Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & Mr. Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 2002/055, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Nier, Erlend & Baumann, Ursel, 2006. "Market discipline, disclosure and moral hazard in banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 332-361, July.
    46. Nier, Erlend W., 2005. "Bank stability and transparency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 342-354, April.
    47. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2002. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 1-32, February.
    48. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, April.
    49. Amihud, Yakov & DeLong, Gayle L. & Saunders, Anthony, 2002. "The effects of cross-border bank mergers on bank risk and value," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 857-877, November.
    50. De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
    51. Allen N. Berger, 2000. "The integration of the financial services industry: where are the efficiencies?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Bostandzic, Denefa & Neumann, Sascha, 2014. "What factors drive systemic risk during international financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 78-96.
    2. Mühlnickel, Janina & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Consolidation and systemic risk in the international insurance industry," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 187-202.
    3. Bostandzic, Denefa & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2018. "Why do some banks contribute more to global systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 17-40.
    4. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Mühlnickel, Janina, 2014. "Why do some insurers become systemically relevant?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 95-117.
    5. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Mulier, Klaas, 2017. "Bank sectoral concentration and (systemic) risk: Evidence from a worldwide sample of banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Brealey, Richard A & Cooper, Ian A & Kaplanis, Evi, 2019. "The effect of mergers on US bank risk in the short run and in the long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Yang, Hsin-Feng & Liu, Chih-Liang & Yeutien Chou, Ray, 2020. "Bank diversification and systemic risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 311-326.
    8. Hoque, Hafiz & Andriosopoulos, Dimitris & Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Douady, Raphael, 2015. "Bank regulation, risk and return: Evidence from the credit and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 455-474.
    9. Xiaoqing Maggie Fu & Yongjia Rebecca Lin & Philip Molyneux, 2015. "Bank Competition and Financial Stability in Asia Pacific," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Bank Competition, Efficiency and Liquidity Creation in Asia Pacific, chapter 3, pages 49-71, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Saqib Aziz & Michael Dowling & Jean-Jacques Lilti, 2016. "Bank Acquisitiveness and Financial Crisis Vulnerability," Post-Print hal-01393953, HAL.
    11. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2017. "Is there a competition-stability trade-off in European banking?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 199-215.
    12. Srivastav, Abhishek & Armitage, Seth & Hagendorff, Jens & King, Tim, 2018. "Better safe than sorry? CEO inside debt and risk-taking in bank acquisitions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 208-224.
    13. Silva-Buston, Consuelo, 2019. "Systemic risk and competition revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 188-205.
    14. Saqib Aziz & Michael Dowling & Jean-Jacques Lilti, 2016. "Bank Acquisitiveness and Financial Crisis Vulnerability," Post-Print halshs-01360952, HAL.
    15. Trapp, Rouven & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2016. "Derivatives usage, securitization, and the crash sensitivity of bank stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 183-205.
    16. Bui, Dien Giau & Chen, Yan-Shing & Hsu, Hsing-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2020. "Labor unions and bank risk culture: evidence from the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2014. "The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 3-22.
    18. Bierth, Christopher & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Systemic risk of insurers around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 232-245.
    19. Xavier Vives, 2011. "Competition and Stability in Banking," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 12, pages 455-502, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Beck, Thorsten, 2008. "Bank competition and financial stability : friends or foes ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4656, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    M&A; Banks; Consolidation; Systemic risk; Lower tail dependence; Marginal expected shortfall;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:165-181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.