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The effects of fiscal policy in the 1990s in Japan: A VAR analysis with event studies

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  • Miyazaki, Tomomi

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of Japanese fiscal policy during the 1990s. A mixed vector autoregression (VAR)/event study approach is used for this purpose. The first empirical finding is that in the late 1990s, the negative effect of fiscal policy was larger and more persistent than the positive effect. This finding suggests that the large fiscal expansions in the late 1990s were inadequate for stimulating the macroeconomy in terms of the size and persistence of their policy effects. The second finding is that the permanent tax cuts implemented in the former part of the 1990s increased consumer durable spending significantly and persistently. This increase may reflect consumers' incentive to spend before the increase in the consumption tax rate in April 1997.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 80-87

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Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:22:y:2010:i:2:p:80-87

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

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Keywords: Fiscal policy in Japan Narrative approach Vector autoregressions;

References

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  1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  2. Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bayoumi, Tamim, 2001. "The morning after: explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 241-259, April.
  4. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Sources of Output Fluctuations during the Interwar Period: Further Evidence on the Causes of the Great Depression," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 80-102, February.
  5. Watanabe, Katsunori & Watanabe, Takayuki & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2001. "Tax policy and consumer spending: evidence from Japanese fiscal experiments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 261-281, April.
  6. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
  7. Masahiro Hori & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2006. "Did Japanese consumers become more prudent during 1998-1999? Evidence from household-level data," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 197-209.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1986. "Money and the U.S. economy in the 1980s: a break from the past?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-13.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  10. Martin Feldstein, 2002. "The Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment," NBER Working Papers 9203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  12. Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2006. "Consumer response to the 1998 tax cut: Is a temporary tax cut effective?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 269-287, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Kato, Ryuta Ray & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-58.
  2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Yamada, Junji, 2011. "Stock price targeting and fiscal deficit in Japan: Why did the fiscal deficit increase during Japan’s lost decades?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 447-464.

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