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Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case

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  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
  • Tien, Charles
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    Abstract

    We look at the substantive theory behind political forecasting models, which are generally based on theories of electoral behavior. We argue that the theory relied on for developing forecasting models should be as non-controversial as possible; what we call “core theory”. We take the lessons of theory and practice in forecasting of western democracies and apply them to the unexplored Japanese case. We discover that, in fact, Japanese elections are quite amenable to forecasting. We observe the continuing cross-democracy generalizability of the core political economy model, a model that has bound together so much election forecasting work.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 28 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 797-803

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:4:p:797-803

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Comparative studies; Econometric models; Election forecasts; Government forecasting; Japan;

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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-73, May.
    2. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
    3. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
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