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Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case

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  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
  • Tien, Charles

Abstract

We look at the substantive theory behind political forecasting models, which are generally based on theories of electoral behavior. We argue that the theory relied on for developing forecasting models should be as non-controversial as possible; what we call “core theory”. We take the lessons of theory and practice in forecasting of western democracies and apply them to the unexplored Japanese case. We discover that, in fact, Japanese elections are quite amenable to forecasting. We observe the continuing cross-democracy generalizability of the core political economy model, a model that has bound together so much election forecasting work.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2012. "Japanese election forecasting: Classic tests of a hard case," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 797-803.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:4:p:797-803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.04.005
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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
    3. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
    4. Krauss, Ellis S. & Nyblade, Benjamin, 2005. "‘Presidentialization’ in Japan? The Prime Minister, Media and Elections in Japan," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 357-368, April.
    5. Yates, Jeff & Whitford, Andrew B. & Gillespie, William, 2005. "Agenda Setting, Issue Priorities and Organizational Maintenance: The US Supreme Court, 1955 to 1994," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 357-368, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. UMEDA, Michio, 2023. "Aggregating qualitative district-level campaign assessments to forecast election results: Evidence from Japan," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 956-966.
    3. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    4. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.

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