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Holt's exponential smoothing and neural network models for forecasting interval-valued time series

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  • Maia, André Luis Santiago
  • de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T.
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    Abstract

    Interval-valued time series are interval-valued data that are collected in a chronological sequence over time. This paper introduces three approaches to forecasting interval-valued time series. The first two approaches are based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and Holt's exponential smoothing methods, respectively. In Holt's method for interval-valued time series, the smoothing parameters are estimated by using techniques for non-linear optimization problems with bound constraints. The third approach is based on a hybrid methodology that combines the MLP and Holt models. The practicality of the methods is demonstrated through simulation studies and applications using real interval-valued stock market time series.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207010000506
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 740-759

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:3:p:740-759

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Symbolic data analysis Exponential smoothing Neural networks Hybrid forecasting models Interval-valued data;

    References

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    1. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-10.
    2. Zou, Hui & Yang, Yuhong, 2004. "Combining time series models for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 69-84.
    3. Williams, Dan W. & Miller, Don, 1999. "Level-adjusted exponential smoothing for modeling planned discontinuities1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-289, July.
    4. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    5. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    6. De A. T. De Carvalho, Francisco & Csernel, Marc & Lechevallier, Yves, 2009. "Clustering constrained symbolic data," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/12414, Paris Dauphine University.
    7. Fang, Yue, 2003. "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 87-94.
    8. Marie Chavent & Francisco Carvalho & Yves Lechevallier & Rosanna Verde, 2006. "New clustering methods for interval data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 211-229, June.
    9. Arroyo, Javier & Maté, Carlos, 2009. "Forecasting histogram time series with k-nearest neighbours methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 192-207.
    10. Holt, Charles C., 2004. "Author's retrospective on 'Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages'," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 11-13.
    11. Groenen, P.J.F. & Winsberg, S. & Rodriguez, O. & Diday, E., 2006. "I-Scal: Multidimensional scaling of interval dissimilarities," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 360-378, November.
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