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Living in a world of low levels of predictability

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  • Makridakis, Spyros
  • Taleb, Nassim
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    Abstract

    This conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V92-4WD6XPX-1/2/1b23c45253307f960afe60b21bec5d31
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 840-844

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:25:y:2009:i:4:p:840-844

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

    Related research

    Keywords: Forecasting Accuracy Black Swans Low level predictability Illusion of control Paradox of control;

    References

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    1. Makridakis, Spyros, 1982. "Chronology of the last six recessions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-50.
    2. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    3. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros & Hogarth, Robin M. & Gaba, Anil, 2009. "Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 794-812, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.
    2. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults Using Multiple Risk Signals," Working Papers 2012_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Miller, Craig & Newell, Barry, 2013. "Framing integrated research to address a dynamically complex issue: The red headed cockchafer challenge," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 13-18.
    4. Simone Pace, 2014. "Risk of loss towards an agent based model," DEM Working Papers Series 077, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Maria Reznakova, Michal Karas, 2012. "The Effects of a Change in the Environment on Business Valuation Using the Income Capitalization Approach," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 119-137.

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