Living in a world of low levels of predictability
AbstractThis conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Forecasting Accuracy Black Swans Low level predictability Illusion of control Paradox of control;
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- Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.
- Maria Reznakova, Michal Karas, 2012. "The Effects of a Change in the Environment on Business Valuation Using the Income Capitalization Approach," Equilibrium, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 119-137.
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults Using Multiple Risk Signals," Working Papers 2012_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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