Living in a world of low levels of predictability
AbstractThis conclusion aims to summarize the major issues surrounding forecasting, as well as the extensive empirical evidence proving our inability to accurately predict the future. In addition, it discusses our resistance to accepting such inaccurate predictions, while putting forwards a number of ideas aimed at a complex world where accurate forecasting is impossible and where uncertainty reigns.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Forecasting Accuracy Black Swans Low level predictability Illusion of control Paradox of control;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hogarth, Robin M. & Gaba, Anil, 2009. "Forecasting and uncertainty in the economic and business world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 794-812, October.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
- Makridakis, Spyros, 1982. "Chronology of the last six recessions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-50.
- Maria Reznakova, Michal Karas, 2012. "The Effects of a Change in the Environment on Business Valuation Using the Income Capitalization Approach," Equilibrium, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 119-137.
- Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.
- Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults Using Multiple Risk Signals," Working Papers 2012_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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