IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-fef031ea445e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

Author

Listed:
  • Grossmann, Igor
  • Rotella, Amanda A.
  • Hutcherson, Cendri
  • Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn
  • Varnum, Michael E. W.
  • Achter, Sebastian K.
  • Dhami, Mandeep
  • Guo, Xinqi Evie
  • Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R.
  • Mandel, David
  • Raes, Louis

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Tay, Louis
  • Vie, Aymeric
  • Wagner, Lisa
  • Adamkovic, Matus
  • Arami, Arash
  • Arriaga, Patricia
  • Bandara, Kasun
  • Banik, Gabriel
  • Bartos, Frantisek
  • Baskin, Ernest
  • Bergmeir, Christoph
  • Bialek, Michal K.
  • Borsting, Caroline T.
  • Browne, Dillon M.
  • Caruso, Eugene
  • Chen, Rong
  • Chie, Bin-Tzong J.
  • Chopik, William N.
  • Collins, Robert
  • Cong, Chin Wen G.
  • Conway, Lucian
  • Davis, Matthew V.
  • Day, Martin A.
  • Dhaliwal, Nathan D.
  • Durham, Justin
  • Dziekan, Martyna T.
  • Elbaek, Christian
  • Shuman, Eric
  • Fabrykant, Marharyta
  • Firat, Mustafa T.
  • Fong, Geoffrey A.
  • Frimer, Jeremy M.
  • Gallegos, Jonathan B.
  • Goldberg, Simon
  • Gollwitzer, Anton
  • Goyal, Julia
  • Graf-Vlachy, Lorenz D.
  • Gronlund, Scott
  • Hafenbraedl, Sebastian
  • Hartanto, Andree J.
  • Hirshberg, Matthew J.
  • Hornsey, Matthew
  • Howe, Piers D. L.
  • Izadi, Anoosha
  • Jaeger, Bastian

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Kacmar, Pavol
  • Kim, Yeun Joon
  • Krenzler, Ruslan G.
  • Lannin, Daniel
  • Lin, Hung-Wen
  • Lou, Nigel Mantou
  • Lua, Verity Y. Q. W.
  • Lukaszewski, Aaron L.
  • Ly, Albert R.
  • Madan, Christopher
  • Maier, Maximilian M.
  • Majeed, Nadyanna S.
  • March, David A.
  • Marsh, Abigail
  • Misiak, Michal
  • Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. M.
  • Napan, Jaime
  • Nicholas, Jonathan
  • Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos
  • Otterbring, Tobias
  • Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola
  • Pauer, Shiva
  • Protzko, John
  • Raffaelli, Quentin
  • Ropovik, Ivan
  • Ross, Robert M.
  • Roth, Yefim
  • Roysamb, Espen
  • Schnabel, Landon
  • Schuetz, Astrid
  • Seifert, Matthias
  • Sevincer, A. T.
  • Sherman, Garrick T.
  • Simonsson, Otto
  • Sung, Ming-Chien
  • Tai, Chung-Ching
  • Talhelm, Thomas
  • Teachman, Bethany A.
  • Tetlock, Philip E.
  • Thomakos, Dimitrios
  • Tse, Dwight C. K.
  • Twardus, Oliver J.
  • Tybur, Joshua M.
  • Ungar, Lyle
  • Vandermeulen, Daan
  • Vaughan Williams, Leighton
  • Vosgerichian, Hrag A.
  • Wang, Qi
  • Wang, Ke

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Whiting, Mark E.
  • Wollbrant, Conny E.
  • Yang, Tao
  • Yogeeswaran, Kumar
  • Yoon, Sangsuk
  • Alves, Ventura R.
  • Andrews-Hanna, Jessica R.
  • Bloom, Paul A.
  • Boyles, Anthony
  • Charis, Loo
  • Choi, Mingyeong
  • Darling-Hammond, Sean
  • Ferguson, Z. E.
  • Kaiser, Cheryl R.
  • Karg, Simon T.
  • Ortega, Alberto Lopez
  • Mahoney, Lori
  • Marsh, Melvin S.
  • Martinie, Marcellin F. R. C.
  • Michaels, Eli K.
  • Millroth, Philip
  • Naqvi, Jeanean B.
  • Ng, Weiting
  • Rutledge, Robb B.
  • Slattery, Peter
  • Smiley, Adam H.
  • Strijbis, Oliver
  • Sznycer, Daniel
  • Tsukayama, Eli
  • van Loon, Austin
  • Voelkel, Jan G.
  • Wienk, Margaux N. A.
  • Wilkening, Tom

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Grossmann, Igor & Rotella, Amanda A. & Hutcherson, Cendri & Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn & Varnum, Michael E. W. & Achter, Sebastian K. & Dhami, Mandeep & Guo, Xinqi Evie & Kara-Yakoubian, Mane R. & Mandel, 2023. "Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change," Other publications TiSEM c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-fef031ea445e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/68512121/SP_Jaeger_insights_into_the_accuracy_NHB_2023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans IJzerman & Neil A. Lewis & Andrew K. Przybylski & Netta Weinstein & Lisa DeBruine & Stuart J. Ritchie & Simine Vazire & Patrick S. Forscher & Richard D. Morey & James D. Ivory & Farid Anvari, 2020. "Use caution when applying behavioural science to policy," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1092-1094, November.
    2. Jay J. Van Bavel & Katherine Baicker & Paulo S. Boggio & Valerio Capraro & Aleksandra Cichocka & Mina Cikara & Molly J. Crockett & Alia J. Crum & Karen M. Douglas & James N. Druckman & John Drury & Oe, 2020. "Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(5), pages 460-471, May.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    4. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
    5. Joseph Henrich & Steve J. Heine & Ara Norenzayan, 2010. "The Weirdest People in the World?," RatSWD Working Papers 139, German Data Forum (RatSWD).
    6. Voslinsky, Alisa & Azar, Ofer H., 2021. "Incentives in experimental economics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    8. Jake M. Hofman & Duncan J. Watts & Susan Athey & Filiz Garip & Thomas L. Griffiths & Jon Kleinberg & Helen Margetts & Sendhil Mullainathan & Matthew J. Salganik & Simine Vazire & Alessandro Vespignani, 2021. "Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7866), pages 181-188, July.
    9. Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Living in a world of low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 840-844, October.
    10. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1678-1685.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kang, Yanfei & Cao, Wei & Petropoulos, Fotios & Li, Feng, 2022. "Forecast with forecasts: Diversity matters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 180-190.
    2. Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V. & Şimşek, Özgür & Buckmann, Marcus & Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2022. "Transparent modeling of influenza incidence: Big data or a single data point from psychological theory?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 613-619.
    3. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
    4. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    5. Bojer, Casper Solheim & Meldgaard, Jens Peder, 2021. "Kaggle forecasting competitions: An overlooked learning opportunity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 587-603.
    6. Alroomi, Azzam & Karamatzanis, Georgios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Tilba, Anna & Xiao, Shujun, 2022. "Fathoming empirical forecasting competitions’ winners," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1519-1525.
    7. dos Santos Maciel, Leandro, 2023. "Brazilian stock-market efficiency before and after COVID-19: The roles of fractality and predictability," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Winita Sulandari & Yudho Yudhanto & Sri Subanti & Crisma Devika Setiawan & Riskhia Hapsari & Paulo Canas Rodrigues, 2023. "Comparing the Simple to Complex Automatic Methods with the Ensemble Approach in Forecasting Electrical Time Series Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Van Belle, Jente & Guns, Tias & Verbeke, Wouter, 2021. "Using shared sell-through data to forecast wholesaler demand in multi-echelon supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(2), pages 466-479.
    10. Nghia Chu & Binh Dao & Nga Pham & Huy Nguyen & Hien Tran, 2022. "Predicting Mutual Funds' Performance using Deep Learning and Ensemble Techniques," Papers 2209.09649, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    11. Jay Joseph van Bavel & Aleksandra Cichocka & Valerio Capraro & Hallgeir Sjåstad & John Nezlek & Tomislav Pavlović & Mark Alfano & Michele Gelfand & Flavio Azevedo & Michèle Birtel & Aleksandra Cislak , 2022. "National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic: Results from 67 nations," Post-Print hal-03543504, HAL.
    12. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "The M5 uncertainty competition: Results, findings and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1365-1385.
    13. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
    14. Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
    15. Sven Grüner & Mira Lehberger & Norbert Hirschauer & Oliver Mußhoff, 2022. "How (un)informative are experiments with students for other social groups? A study of agricultural students and farmers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(3), pages 471-504, July.
    16. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2023. "The RWDAR model: A novel state-space approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 922-937.
    17. Christopher E.S. WARBURTON & Jared PEMBERTON, 2023. "Volatile Financial Conditions, Asset Prices, and Investment Decisions: Analysis of daily data of DJIA and S&P500, from January to April of 2022," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 101-124.
    18. Qi, Lingzhi & Li, Xixi & Wang, Qiang & Jia, Suling, 2023. "fETSmcs: Feature-based ETS model component selection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1303-1317.
    19. Gonca Gürses-Tran & Antonello Monti, 2022. "Advances in Time Series Forecasting Development for Power Systems’ Operation with MLOps," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, May.
    20. Nasios, Ioannis & Vogklis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1448-1459.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:c14f4a4a-b105-46b3-90f7-fef031ea445e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.