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Economic crises: Impacts on the forest-based sector and wood-based energy use in Austria

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  • Schwarzbauer, Peter
  • Weinfurter, Stefan
  • Stern, Tobias
  • Koch, Sebastian

Abstract

In light of the recent economic crisis, the authors have assessed the effects of different types of economic crises' scenarios on the Austrian forest-based sector using a simulation model (FOHOW) written in the System-Dynamics (SD) language. The model addresses the interactions between the general economy and the forest sector, including forestry, forestry-based industries and energy. The simulation period for all of the scenarios ranged from 2006 to 2025. As compared to the past, the development of the sector substantially changes, even in the base scenario. These changes are primarily caused by increased demand for wooden biomass for energy due to the assumed execution of the National Action Plan for Renewable Energy. All crises' scenarios resulted in declining production and lower prices compared to the base scenario, differing only in magnitude. Forestry, sawmill and paper industries perform better in an export crisis than in a local crisis, because decreased exports can, to a certain extent, be compensated for by increasing domestic demand, while the domestic shortfalls are difficult to compensate by raising exports. By contrast, the export-oriented panel industry does better in a local crisis simulation. In general, economic crises only moderately change the assortment composition of timber supply within the forestry industry. The results also show that the sawmill industry plays a vital role in the allocation of wooden biomass in all of the scenarios. When developing policies for forest-based industries, specifically the procurement of wooden raw material, the key role of the sawmill industry must be considered in each case.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwarzbauer, Peter & Weinfurter, Stefan & Stern, Tobias & Koch, Sebastian, 2013. "Economic crises: Impacts on the forest-based sector and wood-based energy use in Austria," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 13-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:13-22
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2012.11.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fuhrmann, Marilene & Dißauer, Christa & Strasser, Christoph & Schmid, Erwin, 2021. "Analysing price cointegration of sawmill by-products in the forest-based sector in Austria," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Cantegril, Pierre & Paradis, Gregory & LeBel, Luc & Raulier, Frédéric, 2019. "Bioenergy production to improve value-creation potential of strategic forest management plans in mixed-wood forests of Eastern Canada," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 171-181.
    3. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    4. Koch, Sebastian P. & Schwarzbauer, Peter & Stern, Tobias, 2013. "Monthly wood supply behavior of associated forest owners in Austria—Insights from the analysis of a micro-econometric panel," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 331-346.
    5. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    6. Kalt, Gerald & Kaufmann, Lisa & Kastner, Thomas & Krausmann, Fridolin, 2021. "Tracing Austria's biomass consumption to source countries: A product-level comparison between bioenergy, food and material," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Stern, Tobias & Ledl, Caroline & Braun, Martin & Hesser, Franziska & Schwarzbauer, Peter, 2015. "Biorefineries' impacts on the Austrian forest sector: A system dynamics approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 311-326.
    8. Halaj, Daniel & Brodrechtova, Yvonne, 2018. "Marketing decision making in the forest biomass market: The case of Austria, Finland and Slovakia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 201-209.
    9. Alexandru Giurca & Liviu Nichiforel & Petru Tudor Stăncioiu & Marian Drăgoi & Daniel-Paul Dima, 2022. "Unlocking Romania’s Forest-Based Bioeconomy Potential: Knowledge-Action-Gaps and the Way Forward," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, November.

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