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Biorefineries' impacts on the Austrian forest sector: A system dynamics approach

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  • Stern, Tobias
  • Ledl, Caroline
  • Braun, Martin
  • Hesser, Franziska
  • Schwarzbauer, Peter

Abstract

This paper considers preceding technical research on wood-biorefineries when assessing the potential socio-economic impacts caused by a practical implementation of the developed technologies and products. Four different scenarios were simulated by using a system dynamics-model called FOHOW covering the entire forest based sector in Austria. At first a base scenario (business as usual) was calculated and then three different biorefinery-scenarios were assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stern, Tobias & Ledl, Caroline & Braun, Martin & Hesser, Franziska & Schwarzbauer, Peter, 2015. "Biorefineries' impacts on the Austrian forest sector: A system dynamics approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 311-326.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:91:y:2015:i:c:p:311-326
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schwarzbauer, Peter & Weinfurter, Stefan & Stern, Tobias & Koch, Sebastian, 2013. "Economic crises: Impacts on the forest-based sector and wood-based energy use in Austria," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 13-22.
    2. Musango, Josephine K. & Brent, Alan C. & Bassi, Andrea M., 2014. "Modelling the transition towards a green economy in South Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 257-273.
    3. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    4. Näyhä, Annukka & Pesonen, Hanna-Leena, 2012. "Diffusion of forest biorefineries in Scandinavia and North America," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1111-1120.
    5. Näyhä, Annukka & Pesonen, Hanna-Leena, 2014. "Strategic change in the forest industry towards the biorefining business," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 259-271.
    6. Schwarzbauer, Peter & Rametsteiner, Ewald, 2001. "The impact of SFM-certification on forest product markets in Western Europe -- an analysis using a forest sector simulation model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3-4), pages 241-256, July.
    7. Tromborg, Erik & Buongiorno, Joseph & Solberg, Birger, 2000. "The global timber market: implications of changes in economic growth, timber supply, and technological trends," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 53-69, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lelde Timma & Elina Dace & Troels Kristensen & Marie Trydeman Knudsen, 2020. "Dynamic Sustainability Assessment Tool: Case Study of Green Biorefineries in Danish Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-23, September.
    2. Brunnhofer, Magdalena & Gabriella, Natasha & Schöggl, Josef-Peter & Stern, Tobias & Posch, Alfred, 2020. "The biorefinery transition in the European pulp and paper industry – A three-phase Delphi study including a SWOT-AHP analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Asada, Raphael & Cardellini, Giuseppe & Mair-Bauernfeind, Claudia & Wenger, Julia & Haas, Verena & Holzer, Daniel & Stern, Tobias, 2020. "Effective bioeconomy? a MRIO-based socioeconomic and environmental impact assessment of generic sectoral innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Bidhan Bhuson Roy & Qingshi Tu, 2022. "A review of system dynamics modeling for the sustainability assessment of biorefineries," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1450-1459, August.
    5. Ricciardi, Francesca & De Bernardi, Paola & Cantino, Valter, 2020. "System dynamics modeling as a circular process: The smart commons approach to impact management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Brinkman, Marnix L.J. & Wicke, Birka & Faaij, André P.C. & van der Hilst, Floor, 2019. "Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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