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The impact of expected regulatory changes: The case of banks following the 2016U.S. election

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  • Hachenberg, Britta
  • Kiesel, Florian
  • Kolaric, Sascha
  • Schiereck, Dirk

Abstract

We analyze bank stocks and credit default swap (CDS) spreads around the U.S. presidential election on November 8, 2016. We find a strong rally in bank stocks combined with an overall widening in bank CDS spreads during the days after the announcement of the election result. Following Donald Trump's victory, market participants appear to anticipate a lowering of financial sector regulation, particularly with respect to the Dodd-Frank act. In addition, we find that Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) reacted more positive than non-G-SIBs, with stocks having larger gains and CDS remaining relatively stable. Non-G-SIB stocks, on the other hand, gained less and their CDS widened, indicating less favorable changes from deregulation than for G-SIBs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hachenberg, Britta & Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2017. "The impact of expected regulatory changes: The case of banks following the 2016U.S. election," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 268-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:22:y:2017:i:c:p:268-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.12.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Refk Selmi & Jamal Bouoiyour, 2020. "The financial costs of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2016 US presidential elections," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(2), pages 166-185, May.
    2. Killins, Robert N. & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2022. "Financial institution IPOs and regulatory environments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. election; Banks; Credit default swap; Stock markets; Market regulation; Dodd-Frank act;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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