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Forecasting the diffusion of wind power in Pakistan

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  • Harijan, Khanji
  • Uqaili, Mohammad A.
  • Memon, Mujeebuddin
  • Mirza, Umar K.

Abstract

About half of the Pakistan’s population has no access to electricity and per capita consumption is one of the lowest in the world. The country is facing severe energy crisis due to shortage of electricity and gas supply. About two-third of the total electricity is generated from fossil fuels. Pakistan heavily depends on imported energy due to limited indigenous reserves and production of oil. The production, transportation, transformation and consumption of fossil fuels also adversely affect the quality of the environment due to indiscriminate release of toxic substances. This shows that Pakistan must develop alternate, indigenous and environment friendly energy resources, like wind energy, to face these challenges. This paper presents the market penetration forecasts of wind power in Pakistan under different policy scenarios. The diffusion of wind power is forecasted using logistic model and analogous approach. The study concludes that about 42, 58 and 73% of the country’s total technical potential of wind power generation could be exploited by the year 2030 under SS, MS and OS scenarios respectively. The development and utilization of wind power would reduce the pressure on oil imports, protect the environment from pollution and improve the socio-economic conditions of the people of Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Harijan, Khanji & Uqaili, Mohammad A. & Memon, Mujeebuddin & Mirza, Umar K., 2011. "Forecasting the diffusion of wind power in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 6068-6073.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:10:p:6068-6073
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2011.08.009
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    9. Shabbir, Noman & Usman, Muhammad & Jawad, Muhammad & Zafar, Muhammad H. & Iqbal, Muhammad N. & Kütt, Lauri, 2020. "Economic analysis and impact on national grid by domestic photovoltaic system installations in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 509-521.
    10. Valasai, Gordhan Das & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Memon, HafeezUr Rahman & Samoo, Saleem Raza & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Harijan, Khanji, 2017. "Overcoming electricity crisis in Pakistan: A review of sustainable electricity options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 734-745.
    11. Huh, Sung-Yoon & Lee, Chul-Yong, 2014. "Diffusion of renewable energy technologies in South Korea on incorporating their competitive interrelationships," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 248-257.
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    15. Mazhar Hussain Baloch & Dahaman Ishak & Sohaib Tahir Chaudary & Baqir Ali & Ali Asghar Memon & Touqeer Ahmed Jumani, 2019. "Wind Power Integration: An Experimental Investigation for Powering Local Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, February.
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    17. Rafiq Asghar & Zahid Ullah & Babar Azeem & Sheraz Aslam & Muhammad Harris Hashmi & Ehtsham Rasool & Bilawal Shaker & Muhammad Junaid Anwar & Kainat Mustafa, 2022. "Wind Energy Potential in Pakistan: A Feasibility Study in Sindh Province," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-23, November.
    18. Yi, Bo-Wen & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Inter-regional power grid planning up to 2030 in China considering renewable energy development and regional pollutant control: A multi-region bottom-up optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 641-658.
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