IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v239y2022ipcs0360544221024191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Degree of connectedness and the transfer of news across the oil market and the European stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Kliber, Agata
  • Łęt, Blanka

Abstract

The article aims to investigate the connectedness between the oil market and the European stocks, as well as to discover the way the news between the commodity and stock markets are transmitted. We examine the price of the Brent futures and the main stocks indices of twenty two European economies over the years 2000–2020. We study the following aspects of the connectedness: the amount of information transmitted across the markets (spillover index) and the velocity of its spread (frequency connectedness on various frequency bands), as well as the dependency structure of their joint distribution (quantile coherency). We prove that, in the investigated period, oil shocks did not affect European financial markets very strongly (and vice versa). Yet, the situation changed during economic crises or turbulence on the oil market. Tensions in financial markets resulted in the increase of the cross-correlation and causality from the stock exchanges to Brent futures, while oil-related episodes were raising causality from the oil market, not affecting the correlation. The news was almost fully incorporated into both markets within the first two-five days after the shock occurrence. During financial crises, the influence of disturbances lasted much longer.

Suggested Citation

  • Kliber, Agata & Łęt, Blanka, 2022. "Degree of connectedness and the transfer of news across the oil market and the European stocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:239:y:2022:i:pc:s0360544221024191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.122171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221024191
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122171?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    2. Zoi Vrontisi & Alban Kitous & Bert Saveyn & Toon Vandyck, 2015. "Impact of low oil prices on the EU economy," JRC Research Reports JRC98188, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Wang, Qingfeng & Sun, Xu, 2017. "Crude oil price: Demand, supply, economic activity, economic policy uncertainty and wars – From the perspective of structural equation modelling (SEM)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 483-490.
    4. Xiao, Di & Wang, Jun, 2020. "Dynamic complexity and causality of crude oil and major stock markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices, exchange rate, and stock market: A dynamic causality analysis on the European market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 199-202.
    6. Jiang, Zhuhua & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Dynamic co-movement between oil and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Two types of wavelet analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    7. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    8. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    9. Wu, Kai & Zhu, Jingran & Xu, Mingli & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    10. Qiang Ji & Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun, 2019. "New Challenge and Research Development in Global Energy Financialization," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2669-2672, September.
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    12. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities: Asymmetric effect with quantile regression," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(9), pages 1910-1920.
    15. Sarwar, Suleman & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Tingqiu, Cao, 2020. "Analyzing volatility spillovers between oil market and Asian stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Kim, Myung Suk, 2018. "Impacts of supply and demand factors on declining oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1059-1065.
    17. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    18. Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011. "Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?," Working Paper Series 1346, European Central Bank.
    19. Awartani, Basel & Aktham, Maghyereh & Cherif, Guermat, 2016. "The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 56-69.
    20. Martín-Barragán, Belén & Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2015. "Correlations between oil and stock markets: A wavelet-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 212-227.
    21. Kley, Tobias, 2016. "Quantile-Based Spectral Analysis in an Object-Oriented Framework and a Reference Implementation in R: The quantspec Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 70(i03).
    22. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    23. Kayalar, Derya Ezgi & Küçüközmen, C. Coşkun & Selcuk-Kestel, A. Sevtap, 2017. "The impact of crude oil prices on financial market indicators: copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-173.
    24. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    25. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
    26. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 455-465.
    27. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    28. Diaz, Elena Maria & Molero, Juan Carlos & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2016. "Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 417-430.
    29. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages 2-18, September.
    30. Reboredo, Juan C., 2015. "Is there dependence and systemic risk between oil and renewable energy stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 32-45.
    31. Ni, Yensen & Wu, Manhwa & Day, Min-Yuh & Huang, Paoyu, 2020. "Do sharp movements in oil prices matter for stock markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    32. Husain, Shaiara & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Sohag, Kazi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "Connectedness among crude oil prices, stock index and metal prices: An application of network approach in the USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-65.
    33. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Daily seasonality in crude oil returns and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-88.
    34. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Chiou, Jer-Shiou, 2011. "Oil sensitivity and its asymmetric impact on the stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 168-174.
    35. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Characteristics of spillovers between the US stock market and precious metals and oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    36. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    37. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    38. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    40. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    41. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
    42. Lin, Ling & Kuang, Yuanpei & Jiang, Yong & Su, Xianfang, 2019. "Assessing risk contagion among the Brent crude oil market, London gold market and stock markets: Evidence based on a new wavelet decomposition approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    43. Zhang, Dayong, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets revisited: Measuring connectedness from a global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 323-333.
    44. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    45. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sohag, Kazi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Bakhteyev, Stepan & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Do green and dirty investments hedge each other?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Tedeschi, Marco & Mallek, Sabrine & Tarczyńska-Łuniewska, Małgorzata & Zhang, Anqi, 2023. "Realized semi variance quantile connectedness between oil prices and stock market: Spillover from Russian-Ukraine clash," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    3. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Nautiyal, Neeraj & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ghardallou, Wafa & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Is the impact of oil shocks more pronounced during extreme market conditions?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Bin Mo, 2020. "Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    4. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2019. "Separating BRIC using Islamic stocks and crude oil: dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 950-969.
    5. Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying & Ji, Qiang & Hussain, Nazim, 2022. "High-dimensional CoVaR network connectedness for measuring conditional financial contagion and risk spillovers from oil markets to the G20 stock system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet, 2020. "Co-movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions: New evidence from negative WTI prices during COVID-19," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    7. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    8. Restrepo, Natalia & Uribe, Jorge M. & Manotas, Diego, 2018. "Financial risk network architecture of energy firms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 630-642.
    9. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    11. Tian, Maoxi & Alshater, Muneer M. & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "Dynamic risk spillovers from oil to stock markets: Fresh evidence from GARCH copula quantile regression-based CoVaR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Balli, Faruk & O Balli, Hatice & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: What about the effects of firm's solvency and profitability positions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    13. Cui, Jinxin & Goh, Mark & Li, Binlin & Zou, Huiwen, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and risk connectedness among oil and stock markets: New evidence from time-frequency domain perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    14. Escribano, Ana & Koczar, Monika W. & Jareño, Francisco & Esparcia, Carlos, 2023. "Shock transmission between crude oil prices and stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Xu, Weiju & Ma, Feng & Chen, Wang & Zhang, Bing, 2019. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets: Evidence from China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 310-320.
    16. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    17. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Information connectedness of international crude oil futures: Evidence from SC, WTI, and Brent," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Jing Hao & Feng He & Feng Ma & Tong Fu, 2023. "Trading around the clock: Revisit volatility spillover between crude oil and equity markets in different trading sessions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 771-791, June.
    20. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Volatility linkages between stock and commodity markets revisited: Industry perspective and portfolio implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:239:y:2022:i:pc:s0360544221024191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.