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System dynamics modelling and the environmental Kuznets curve in Ecuador (1980–2025)

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  • Robalino-López, Andrés
  • García-Ramos, José-Enrique
  • Golpe, Antonio A.
  • Mena-Nieto, Ángel

Abstract

Is it possible for a country in the process of development to comply with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in the medium term? This is the question that inspired this study. This paper is an extension of a previous study focused on economic development and CO2 emissions in the coming years in Ecuador (Robalino-López et al., submitted for publication). The main goal of this paper is to analyze whether the EKC hypothesis holds within the period 1980–2025 under four different scenarios. This paper uses co-integration techniques (Stock and Watson, 2010) to test the existence of the EKC hypothesis in Ecuador in the medium term using Jaunky's (2011) specification. Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfilment of this hypothesis in the medium term. Results do not support the fulfilment of the EKC, nevertheless, our estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future if economic growth is combined with an increase in the use of renewable energies, an improvement of the productive sectoral structure, and the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology.

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  • Robalino-López, Andrés & García-Ramos, José-Enrique & Golpe, Antonio A. & Mena-Nieto, Ángel, 2014. "System dynamics modelling and the environmental Kuznets curve in Ecuador (1980–2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 923-931.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:923-931
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.003
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    11. Rafindadi, Abdulkadir Abdulrashid, 2016. "Revisiting the concept of environmental Kuznets curve in period of energy disaster and deteriorating income: Empirical evidence from Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 274-284.
    12. Maralgua Och, 2017. "Empirical Investigation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Nitrous Oxide Emissions for Mongolia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 117-128.
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    15. Gideon Kwaku Minua Ampofo & Jinhua Cheng & Edwin Twum Ayimadu & Daniel Akwasi Asante, 2021. "Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Economic Growth on Environmental Quality in the Next 11 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-29, January.
    16. Villalba-Eguiluz, C. Unai & Etxano, Iker, 2017. "Buen Vivir vs Development (II): The Limits of (Neo-)Extractivism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Amri, Fethi & Zaied, Younes Ben & Lahouel, Bechir Ben, 2019. "ICT, total factor productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions in Tunisia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 212-217.
    18. Alharthi, Majed & Hanif, Imran & Alamoudi, Hawazen, 2022. "Impact of environmental pollution on human health and financial status of households in MENA countries: Future of using renewable energy to eliminate the environmental pollution," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 338-346.
    19. Jianhui Jian & Xiaojie Fan & Pinglin He & Hao Xiong & Huayu Shen, 2019. "The Effects of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Financial Development on CO 2 Emissions in China: A VECM Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    20. Román-Collado, Rocío & Morales-Carrión, Any Viviana, 2018. "Towards a sustainable growth in Latin America: A multiregional spatial decomposition analysis of the driving forces behind CO2 emissions changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 273-280.
    21. Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian & Fontalvo, Javier & Martí-Herrero, Jaime & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2022. "Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
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