The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy
AbstractThis paper discusses the iterative provision of modelling insights on long-term decarbonisation scenarios for UK energy policy makers. A multi-year model construction process of the UK MARKAL-Macro-hybrid energy-economic model, and four subsequent major policy analyses illustrates the scope of this interaction. The initial set of modelling runs focused on the technical feasibility of long-term 60% carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction scenarios, the role of key technologies, and the underlying uncertainties. Furthermore subsequent modelling studies were aimed to generate insights on more stringent targets, and on issues and uncertainties that may make targets harder to achieve. Hence, this paper analyses the large number of long-term UK CO2 reduction scenarios through a clustering approach on target stringency and barriers to implementation. Robust findings and key uncertainties are highlighted, including the critical role of the power sector, trade-offs between resources, sectors, key energy technologies and behavioural responses, and the increasing level and spread of CO2 marginal prices and GDP impacts. The relevance and use of modelling insights to the UK energy policy process is shown in the continuation of the energy modelling-policy interface. This constitutes both ongoing model development, and nuanced scenario analysis designed to further explore key uncertainties in evolving policy issues.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.
Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
Energy policy Modelling Decarbonisation scenarios;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pilavachi, P.A. & Dalamaga, Th. & Rossetti di Valdalbero, D. & Guilmot, J.-F., 2008. "Ex-post evaluation of European energy models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1726-1735, May.
- Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
- Winebrake, James J. & Sakva, Denys, 2006. "An evaluation of errors in US energy forecasts: 1982-2003," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3475-3483, December.
- van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Weyant, John & de la Chesnaye, Francisco, 2006. "Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 102-120, January.
- Das, Anjana & Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico & Virdis, Maria R., 2007. "ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 763-771, February.
- Unger, Thomas & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2005. "Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2152-2163, November.
- Richard Loulou & Maryse Labriet, 2008. "ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 7-40, February.
- Laitner, J. A. & DeCanio, S. J. & Koomey, J. G. & Sanstad, A. H., 2003. "Room for improvement: increasing the value of energy modeling for policy analysis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 87-94, June.
- Strachan, Neil & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2008. "Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2947-2963, November.
- Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
- Fischer, Carolyn & Morgenstern, Richard, 2003.
"Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?,"
dp-03-42-rev, Resources For the Future.
- Carolyn Fischer & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2006. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 73-86.
- Huntington, Hillard G & Weyant, John P & Sweeney, James L, 1982. "Modeling for insights, not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 449-462.
- Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
- Anandarajah, Gabrial & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6724-6735, November.
- Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.
- Wright, Evelyn L. & Belt, Juan A.B. & Chambers, Adam & Delaquil, Pat & Goldstein, Gary, 2010. "A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3342-3355, July.
- Neil Strachan & Will Usher, 2012. "Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 121-139, July.
- Strachan, Neil, 2011. "Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 153-160, March.
- Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
- Jablonski, Sophie & Strachan, Neil & Brand, Christian & Bauen, Ausilio, 2010. "The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5799-5816, October.
- Hughes, Nick & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6056-6065, October.
- Lin, Jianyi & Cao, Bin & Cui, Shenghui & Wang, Wei & Bai, Xuemei, 2010. "Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5123-5132, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.