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The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy

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  • Strachan, Neil
  • Pye, Steve
  • Kannan, Ramachandran
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    Abstract

    This paper discusses the iterative provision of modelling insights on long-term decarbonisation scenarios for UK energy policy makers. A multi-year model construction process of the UK MARKAL-Macro-hybrid energy-economic model, and four subsequent major policy analyses illustrates the scope of this interaction. The initial set of modelling runs focused on the technical feasibility of long-term 60% carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction scenarios, the role of key technologies, and the underlying uncertainties. Furthermore subsequent modelling studies were aimed to generate insights on more stringent targets, and on issues and uncertainties that may make targets harder to achieve. Hence, this paper analyses the large number of long-term UK CO2 reduction scenarios through a clustering approach on target stringency and barriers to implementation. Robust findings and key uncertainties are highlighted, including the critical role of the power sector, trade-offs between resources, sectors, key energy technologies and behavioural responses, and the increasing level and spread of CO2 marginal prices and GDP impacts. The relevance and use of modelling insights to the UK energy policy process is shown in the continuation of the energy modelling-policy interface. This constitutes both ongoing model development, and nuanced scenario analysis designed to further explore key uncertainties in evolving policy issues.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 850-860

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:850-860

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Energy policy Modelling Decarbonisation scenarios;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Lin, Jianyi & Cao, Bin & Cui, Shenghui & Wang, Wei & Bai, Xuemei, 2010. "Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5123-5132, September.
    2. Strachan, Neil, 2011. "Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 153-160, March.
    3. Jablonski, Sophie & Strachan, Neil & Brand, Christian & Bauen, Ausilio, 2010. "The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5799-5816, October.
    4. Hughes, Nick & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6056-6065, October.
    5. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    6. Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
    7. Neil Strachan & Will Usher, 2012. "Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 121-139, July.
    8. Sarica, Kemal & Tyner, Wallace E., 2013. "Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    9. Anandarajah, Gabrial & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6724-6735, November.
    10. Wright, Evelyn L. & Belt, Juan A.B. & Chambers, Adam & Delaquil, Pat & Goldstein, Gary, 2010. "A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3342-3355, July.
    11. Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.

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