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Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK

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  • Strachan, Neil
  • Kannan, Ramachandran
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    Abstract

    This paper summarizes the development of a new hybrid MARKAL-Macro (M-M) energy system model for the UK. This hybrid model maintains the technological and sectoral detail of a bottom-up optimisation approach with aggregated energy demand endogeneity and GDP impacts from a single sector neoclassical growth model. The UK M-M model was developed for underpinning analysis of the UK's groundbreaking mandatory long-term - 60% carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction target. Hybrid modelling illustrates that long-term UK CO2 emission reductions are feasible. However, there are endemic uncertainties, notably a trade-off between behavioural and technological decarbonisation options with resultant energy system impacts in the requirements for zero-carbon electricity. UK M-M model sensitivity runs further illustrate the range of energy system interactions including the deployment of the UK's limited CO2 storage capacity, alternate timing of power vs. transport sectoral reductions, the relative ease of switching between electricity generation portfolios, and substitution opportunities between natural gas and coal. The macro-economic cost impacts range from 0.3% to 1.5% reduction in UK GDP by 2050, with higher cost estimates strongly influenced by pessimistic assessments of future low-carbon technologies. However cost impacts from the UK M-M model are likely to be in the lower range for stringent CO2 reduction pathways as the simplicity of the reduced form macro-linkage omits competitiveness and transitional impacts on the UK economy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 6 (November)
    Pages: 2947-2963

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:6:p:2947-2963

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Hybrid energy modelling MARKAL-Macro Carbon emissions Energy systems analysis; Climate policy;

    References

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    1. Unger, Thomas & Ahlgren, Erik O., 2005. "Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2152-2163, November.
    2. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
    3. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Weyant, John & de la Chesnaye, Francisco, 2006. "Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 102-120, January.
    4. Contaldi, Mario & Gracceva, Francesco & Tosato, Giancarlo, 2007. "Evaluation of green-certificates policies using the MARKAL-MACRO-Italy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 797-808, February.
    5. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
    6. Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, 2002. "Multi-regional technological learning in the energysystems MARKAL model," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(3), pages 189-213.
    7. David Pearce, 2003. "The Social Cost of Carbon and its Policy Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 362-384.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. van Vliet, Oscar & van den Broek, Machteld & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Combining hybrid cars and synthetic fuels with electricity generation and carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 248-268, January.
    2. Jablonski, Sophie & Strachan, Neil & Brand, Christian & Bauen, Ausilio, 2010. "The role of bioenergy in the UK's energy future formulation and modelling of long-term UK bioenergy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5799-5816, October.
    3. Neil Strachan & Will Usher, 2012. "Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 121-139, July.
    4. Sarica, Kemal & Tyner, Wallace E., 2013. "Alternative policy impacts on US GHG emissions and energy security: A hybrid modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    5. Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Tran, Martino, 2013. "Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-148.
    6. Anandarajah, Gabrial & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6724-6735, November.
    7. Lanz, Bruno & Rausch, Sebastian, 2011. "General equilibrium, electricity generation technologies and the cost of carbon abatement: A structural sensitivity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1035-1047, September.
    8. Paul Ekins, 2012. "Sustainable growth revisited: technology, economics and policy," Mineral Economics, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 59-77, June.
    9. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    10. Strachan, Neil, 2011. "Business-as-Unusual: Existing policies in energy model baselines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 153-160, March.
    11. Patrícia Fortes & Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira & Júlia Seixas, 2014. "Integrated technological-economic modeling platform for energy and climate policy analysis," Working Papers 148, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    12. Yvan Dutil & Daniel Rousse & Guillermo Quesada, 2011. "Sustainable Buildings: An Ever Evolving Target," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 443-464, February.

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