IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v103y2017icp165-178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

Author

Listed:
  • Gambelli, Danilo
  • Alberti, Francesca
  • Solfanelli, Francesco
  • Vairo, Daniela
  • Zanoli, Raffaele

Abstract

We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae.

Suggested Citation

  • Gambelli, Danilo & Alberti, Francesca & Solfanelli, Francesco & Vairo, Daniela & Zanoli, Raffaele, 2017. "Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 165-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:165-178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517300125
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.01.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Benemann, 2013. "Microalgae for Biofuels and Animal Feeds," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Franco, Carlos J. & Zapata, Sebastian & Dyner, Isaac, 2015. "Simulation for assessing the liberalization of biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 298-307.
    3. Celeux, G. & Corset, F. & Lannoy, A. & Ricard, B., 2006. "Designing a Bayesian network for preventive maintenance from expert opinions in a rapid and reliable way," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(7), pages 849-856.
    4. Singh, Jasvinder & Gu, Sai, 2010. "Commercialization potential of microalgae for biofuels production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2596-2610, December.
    5. Gallagher, Brian J., 2011. "The economics of producing biodiesel from algae," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 158-162.
    6. Charles, Michael B. & Ryan, Rachel & Ryan, Neal & Oloruntoba, Richard, 2007. "Public policy and biofuels: The way forward?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5737-5746, November.
    7. Bartolini, Fabio & Viaggi, Davide, 2012. "An analysis of policy scenario effects on the adoption of energy production on the farm: A case study in Emilia–Romagna (Italy)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 454-464.
    8. Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1993. "Forecasting with scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 291-303, August.
    9. Chen, Fung-Fei & Chou, Seng-Cho & Lu, Tai-Ken, 2013. "Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 162-171.
    10. Paulus, Paul B., 1998. "Developing Consensus about Groupthink after All These Years," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 73(2-3), pages 362-374, February.
    11. Shpitser Ilya & VanderWeele Tyler J, 2011. "A Complete Graphical Criterion for the Adjustment Formula in Mediation Analysis," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Mark W. Rosegrant & Tingju Zhu & Siwa Msangi & Timothy Sulser, 2008. "Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications ," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 495-505.
    13. Zanoli, Raffaele & Gambelli, Danilo & Vairo, Daniela, 2012. "Scenarios of the organic food market in Europe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 41-57.
    14. Kondili, E.M. & Kaldellis, J.K., 2007. "Biofuel implementation in East Europe: Current status and future prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(9), pages 2137-2151, December.
    15. Sorda, Giovanni & Banse, Martin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2010. "An overview of biofuel policies across the world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6977-6988, November.
    16. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    17. Wang, Jianjun & Li, Li, 2016. "Sustainable energy development scenario forecasting and energy saving policy analysis of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 718-724.
    18. Demirbas, Ayhan, 2009. "Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(Supplemen), pages 108-117, November.
    19. Demirbas, M. Fatih, 2011. "Biofuels from algae for sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(10), pages 3473-3480.
    20. Pendharkar, Parag C., 2008. "Maximum entropy and least square error minimizing procedures for estimating missing conditional probabilities in Bayesian networks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 3583-3602, March.
    21. Naik, S.N. & Goud, Vaibhav V. & Rout, Prasant K. & Dalai, Ajay K., 2010. "Production of first and second generation biofuels: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 578-597, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Osman, Ahmed I. & Qasim, Umair & Jamil, Farrukh & Al-Muhtaseb, Ala'a H. & Jrai, Ahmad Abu & Al-Riyami, Mohammed & Al-Maawali, Suhaib & Al-Haj, Lamya & Al-Hinai, Amer & Al-Abri, Mohammed & Inayat, Abra, 2021. "Bioethanol and biodiesel: Bibliometric mapping, policies and future needs," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. P. Sujin & P. M. Diaz & Ajith J. Kings & L. R. Monisha Miriam, 2023. "Sustainable biodiesel production from Ceiba penandra, Mahua longifolia, and Azadirachta indica using CaO-TiO2 nano catalyst," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(3), pages 640-662, May.
    3. Small, Mitchell J. & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Kefford, Benjamin M. & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Greig, Chris & Ballinger, Benjamin & Wilson, Stephen & Smart, Simon, 2019. "Generating linked technology-socioeconomic scenarios for emerging energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1402-1423.
    4. Bharathiraja, B. & Iyyappan, J. & Gopinath, M. & Jayamuthunagai, J. & PraveenKumar, R., 2022. "Transgenicism in algae: Challenges in compatibility, global scenario and future prospects for next generation biofuel production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Gupta, Jharna & Agarwal, Madhu & Dalai, A.K., 2019. "Intensified transesterification of mixture of edible and nonedible oils in reverse flow helical coil reactor for biodiesel production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 509-525.
    6. Huang, Zhiming & Yang, Lin & Jiang, Wen, 2019. "Uncertainty measurement with belief entropy on the interference effect in the quantum-like Bayesian Networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 417-428.
    7. Kargbo, Hannah & Harris, Jonathan Stuart & Phan, Anh N., 2021. "“Drop-in” fuel production from biomass: Critical review on techno-economic feasibility and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Arkadiusz Piwowar & Maciej Dzikuć, 2019. "Development of Renewable Energy Sources in the Context of Threats Resulting from Low-Altitude Emissions in Rural Areas in Poland: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-15, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Kuşkaya, Sevda, 2017. "Can biomass energy be an efficient policy tool for sustainable development?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 830-845.
    2. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Dael, Miet & Lemmens, Bert & Van Passel, Steven, 2017. "A review of the sustainability of algal-based biorefineries: Towards an integrated assessment framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 876-887.
    3. Bahadar, Ali & Bilal Khan, M., 2013. "Progress in energy from microalgae: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 128-148.
    4. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 439-451.
    5. Abila, Nelson, 2012. "Biofuels development and adoption in Nigeria: Synthesis of drivers, incentives and enablers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 387-395.
    6. Correa, Diego F. & Beyer, Hawthorne L. & Fargione, Joseph E. & Hill, Jason D. & Possingham, Hugh P. & Thomas-Hall, Skye R. & Schenk, Peer M., 2019. "Towards the implementation of sustainable biofuel production systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 250-263.
    7. Safi, Carl & Zebib, Bachar & Merah, Othmane & Pontalier, Pierre-Yves & Vaca-Garcia, Carlos, 2014. "Morphology, composition, production, processing and applications of Chlorella vulgaris: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 265-278.
    8. Azad, A.K. & Rasul, M.G. & Khan, M.M.K. & Sharma, Subhash C. & Hazrat, M.A., 2015. "Prospect of biofuels as an alternative transport fuel in Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 331-351.
    9. Filimonau, Viachaslau & Högström, Michaela, 2017. "The attitudes of UK tourists to the use of biofuels in civil aviation: An exploratory study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 84-94.
    10. Marietta Markiewicz & Łukasz Muślewski, 2019. "The Impact of Powering an Engine with Fuels from Renewable Energy Sources including its Software Modification on a Drive Unit Performance Parameters," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Johanna Choumert & Pascale Combes Motel & Charlain Guegang Djimeli, 2017. "The biofuel-development nexus: A meta-analysis," CERDI Working papers halshs-01512678, HAL.
    12. Kargbo, Hannah & Harris, Jonathan Stuart & Phan, Anh N., 2021. "“Drop-in” fuel production from biomass: Critical review on techno-economic feasibility and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Goh, Brandon Han Hoe & Ong, Hwai Chyuan & Cheah, Mei Yee & Chen, Wei-Hsin & Yu, Kai Ling & Mahlia, Teuku Meurah Indra, 2019. "Sustainability of direct biodiesel synthesis from microalgae biomass: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 59-74.
    14. Phanankosi Moyo & Mahluli Moyo & Donatus Dube & Oswell Rusinga, 2013. "Biofuel Policy as a Key Driver for Sustainable Development in the Biofuel Sector: The Missing Ingredient in Zimbabwe’s Biofuel Pursuit," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 1-36, February.
    15. Choumert Nkolo, Johanna & Combes Motel, Pascale & Guegang Djimeli, Charlain, 2018. "Income-generating Effects of Biofuel Policies: A Meta-analysis of the CGE Literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 230-242.
    16. Soratana, Kullapa & Harden, Cheyenne L. & Zaimes, George G. & Rasutis, Daina & Antaya, Claire L. & Khanna, Vikas & Landis, Amy E., 2014. "The role of sustainability and life cycle thinking in U.S. biofuels policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 316-326.
    17. Vallinayagam, R. & Vedharaj, S. & Yang, W.M. & Roberts, W.L. & Dibble, R.W., 2015. "Feasibility of using less viscous and lower cetane (LVLC) fuels in a diesel engine: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1166-1190.
    18. Ruth Chinyere Anyanwu & Cristina Rodriguez & Andy Durrant & Abdul Ghani Olabi, 2022. "Evaluation of Growth Rate and Biomass Productivity of Scenedesmus quadricauda and Chlorella vulgaris under Different LED Wavelengths and Photoperiods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, May.
    19. Ali, Mehmood & Watson, Ian A., 2015. "Microwave treatment of wet algal paste for enhanced solvent extraction of lipids for biodiesel production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 470-477.
    20. Iye, Edward & Bilsborrow, Paul, 2013. "Cellulosic ethanol production from agricultural residues in Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 207-214.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:165-178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.