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Forecasting regional long-run energy demand: A functional coefficient panel approach

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  • Chang, Yoosoon
  • Choi, Yongok
  • Kim, Chang Sik
  • Miller, J. Isaac
  • Park, Joon Y.

Abstract

Previous authors have pointed out that energy consumption changes both over time and nonlinearly with income level. Recent methodological advances using functional coefficients allow panel models to capture these features succinctly. In order to forecast a functional coefficient out-of-sample, we use functional principal components analysis (FPCA), reducing the problem of forecasting a surface to a much easier problem of forecasting a small number of smoothly varying time series. Using a panel of 180 countries with data since 1971, we forecast energy consumption to 2035 for Germany, Italy, the US, Brazil, China, and India.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Yoosoon & Choi, Yongok & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y., 2021. "Forecasting regional long-run energy demand: A functional coefficient panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:96:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321000220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105117
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    Cited by:

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    7. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    8. Wang, You & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Analyzing the difference evolution of provincial energy consumption in China using the functional data analysis method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Functional coefficient panel model; Functional principal component analysis; Energy consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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