Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?
AbstractObservations of historical energy consumption, energy prices, and income growth in industrial economies exhibit a trend in improving energy efficiency even when prices are constant or falling. Two alternative explanations of this phenomenon are: a productivity change that uses less energy and a structural change in the economy in response to rising income. It is not possible to distinguish among these from aggregate data, and economic energy models for forecasting emissions simulate one, as an exogenous time trend, or the other, as energy demand elasticity with respect to income, or both processes for projecting energy demand into the future. In this paper, we ask whether and how it matters which process one uses for projecting energy demand and carbon emissions. We compare two versions of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, one using a conventional efficiency time trend approach and the other using an income elasticity approach. We demonstrate that while these two versions yield equivalent projections in the near-term, that they diverge in two important ways: long-run projections and under uncertainty in future productivity growth. We suggest that an income dependent approach may be preferable to the exogenous approach.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Technical change Energy intensity Emission projections AEEI Income elasticity;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Henry D. Jacoby & Richard S. Eckaus & A. Denny Ellerman & Ronald G. Prinn & David M. Reiner & Zili Yang, 1997. "CO2 Emissions Limits: Economic Adjustments and the Distribution of Burdens," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 31-58.
- Mustafa H. Babiker & Gilbert E. Metcalf & John Reilly, 2002.
"Tax Distortions and Global Climate Policy,"
Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University
0211, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Richard B. Howarth & Lee Schipper & Bo Andersson, 1993. "The Structure and Intensity of Energy Use: Trends in Five OECD Nations," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-46.
- Andy S. Kydes, 1999. "Energy Intensity and Carbon Emission Responses to Technological Change: The U.S. Outlook," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 93-121.
- Sergey Paltsev & John M. Reilly & Henry D. Jacoby & Angelo C. Gurgel & Gilbert E. Metcalf & Andrei P. Sokolov & Jennifer F. Holak, 2007.
"Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals,"
NBER Working Papers
13176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sue Wing, Ian & Eckaus, Richard S., 2007. "The implications of the historical decline in US energy intensity for long-run CO2 emission projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5267-5286, November.
- Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
- Stephen C Peck & Thomas J. Teisberg, 1992. "CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 55-78.
- Richard B. Howarth & Lee Schipper, 1991. "Manufacturing Energy Use in Eight OECD Countries: Trends through 1988," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 15-40.
- Scott, Michael J. & Sands, Ronald D. & Edmonds, Jae & Liebetrau, Albert M. & Engel, David W., 1999. "Uncertainty in integrated assessment models: modeling with MiniCAM 1.0," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(14), pages 855-879, December.
- Edmonds, Jae & Wise, Marshall & Barns, David W, 1995. "Carbon coalitions : The cost and effectiveness of energy agreements to alter trajectories of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4-5), pages 309-335.
- William W. Hogan & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1991. "Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 67-86.
- Alberini, Anna & Gans, Will & Velez-Lopez, Daniel, 2011.
"Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income,"
Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 870-881, September.
- Anna Alberini & Will Gans & Daniel Velez-Lopez, 2011. "Residential Consumption of Gas and Electricity in the U.S.: The Role of Prices and Income," Working Papers 2011.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Anna Alberini & Gans Will & Daniel Lopez-Velez, 2010. "Residential Consumption of Gas and Electricity in the U.S.: The Role of Prices and Income," CEPE Working paper series 10-77, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Miklós Antal & Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, 2014.
"Energy Rebound Due to Re-spending. A Growing Concern,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Miklós Antal & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2014. "Energy rebound due to re-spending: a growing concern," WWWforEurope Policy Paper series 9, WWWforEurope.
- Pablo Salas, 2013. "Literature Review of Energy-Economics Models, Regarding Technological Change and Uncertainty," 4CMR Working Paper Series 003, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
- Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
- Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2014. "Assessing energy price induced improvements in efficiency of capital in OECD manufacturing industries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6929, The World Bank.
- DURAND-LASSERVE, Olivier & Pierru , Axel & SMEERS, Yves, 2012. "Sensitivity of policy simulation to benchmark scenarios in CGE models: illustration with carbon leakage," CORE Discussion Papers 2012063, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Antal, Miklós & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2014. "Re-spending rebound: A macro-level assessment for OECD countries and emerging economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 585-590.
- Xavier Labandeira & Baltazar Manzano, 2012.
"Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security,"
European Research Studies Journal,
European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special I), pages 47-64.
- Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & Joon Y. Park & J. Isaac Miller, 2013. "Disentangling Temporal Patterns in Elasticities: A Functional Coefficient Panel Analysis of Electricity Demand," Working Papers 1320, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
- Sharabaroff, Alexander & Boyd, Roy & Chimeli, Ariaster, 2009. "The environmental and efficiency effects of restructuring on the electric power sector in the United States: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4884-4893, November.
- Shrestha, Ram M. & Rajbhandari, Salony, 2010. "Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4818-4827, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.