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Effect of Climate Change on wind speed and its impact on optimal power system expansion planning: The case of Chile

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  • Rosende, Catalina
  • Sauma, Enzo
  • Harrison, Gareth P.

Abstract

This work assesses the changes in power capacity expansion decisions regarding power generation and transmission that occur when the effects of Climate Change on wind speed are captured in the decision model. Considering an 85-year period (2016–2101), we use a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) model to analyze the optimal power capacity expansion in diverse types of power generation technologies, throughout the years and geographical locations. The optimization model minimizes the total (investment and operational) costs of the power system subject to several technical and economic constraints. We implement our model using the main Chilean power system. We compare two scenarios: one assuming that Climate Change affects wind speeds and hence wind farm capacity factors and the other assuming it does not. Our results reveal that, when taking into account the impact of Climate Change on wind speed, the optimal power generation and transmission expansion plan is different than when ignoring this effect. The variation of wind speed affects not only wind power capacity installed, but also other-technology power capacity installed. In particular, power capacity installed in wind and solar generation plants is higher (measured in MW installed) than the power capacity installed when we ignore the effects of Climate Change; and power capacity installed in diesel and natural gas technologies are lower. We perform sensitivity analyses, changing power capacity expansion limits and the discount rate, to check for the robustness of our results.

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  • Rosende, Catalina & Sauma, Enzo & Harrison, Gareth P., 2019. "Effect of Climate Change on wind speed and its impact on optimal power system expansion planning: The case of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 434-451.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:434-451
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.01.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Munoz, Francisco D. & Pumarino, Bruno J. & Salas, Ignacio A., 2017. "Aiming low and achieving it: A long-term analysis of a renewable policy in Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 304-314.
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    3. Jonathan R. Barton, 2013. "Climate Change Adaptive Capacity in Santiago de Chile: Creating a Governance Regime for Sustainability Planning," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1916-1933, November.
    4. Watts, David & Oses, Nicolás & Pérez, Rodrigo, 2016. "Assessment of wind energy potential in Chile: A project-based regional wind supply function approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 738-755.
    5. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2016. "Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate current and future wind power output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1224-1239.
    6. Lucy Cradden & Gareth Harrison & John Chick, 2012. "Will climate change impact on wind power development in the UK?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 837-852, December.
    7. Sailor, David J. & Smith, Michael & Hart, Melissa, 2008. "Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2393-2406.
    8. Mundaca T., Luis, 2013. "Climate change and energy policy in Chile: Up in smoke?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 235-248.
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    Cited by:

    1. Domínguez, Ruth & Vitali, Sebastiano & Carrión, Miguel & Moriggia, Vittorio, 2021. "Analysing decarbonizing strategies in the European power system applying stochastic dominance constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    3. Bastien Alonzo & Silvia Concettini & Anna Creti & Philippe Drobinski & Peter Tankov, 2022. "Profitability and Revenue Uncertainty of Wind Farms in Western Europe in Present and Future Climate," Post-Print hal-03842344, HAL.
    4. Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2021. "The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Simsek, Yeliz & Sahin, Hasret & Lorca, Álvaro & Santika, Wayan G. & Urmee, Tania & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2020. "Comparison of energy scenario alternatives for Chile: Towards low-carbon energy transition by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Bastien Alonzo & Silvia Concettini & Anna Creti & Philippe Drobinski & Peter Tankov, 2022. "Profitability and Revenue Uncertainty of Wind Farms in Western Europe in Present and Future Climate," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-29, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Power system economics; Power system expansion planning; Wind power generation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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