IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v224y2021ics0360544221003741.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study

Author

Listed:
  • Figueiredo, Raquel
  • Nunes, Pedro
  • Brito, Miguel C.

Abstract

Climate influences renewable energy resources and energy demand, and therefore its interannual variability ought to be considered when designing future renewable-based power systems. This work models a 100% renewable power system considering 473 climate projections based on IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5, using Portugal in 2050 as a case study. Five demand-flexibility scenarios are explored, combining different levels of electricity demand and system flexibility. It is found that demand and climate variability are crucial to the planning of power systems. When planning for a median climate, the required capacity varies 3-fold for the range of demand scenarios considered. For the system to be resilient under unfavorable climates, cross-border interconnection power capacity should be doubled while storage should increase up to 200-fold, compared to the system designed for the median climate. Modeling for unfavorable climates leads to +54% renewable power capacity and a 6-fold increase in curtailment of renewable energy generation, thus increasing electricity cost. It is therefore shown that the design of a fully decarbonized power system ought not to be based only on median future climates but should take into account its interannual variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2021. "The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:224:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221003741
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221003741
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120125?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    2. Peter, Jakob, 2019. "How does climate change affect electricity system planning and optimal allocation of variable renewable energy?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Rosende, Catalina & Sauma, Enzo & Harrison, Gareth P., 2019. "Effect of Climate Change on wind speed and its impact on optimal power system expansion planning: The case of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 434-451.
    4. Peter, Jakob, 2019. "How Does Climate Change Affect Optimal Allocation of Variable Renewable Energy?," EWI Working Papers 2019-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    5. Bonjean Stanton, Muriel C. & Dessai, Suraje & Paavola, Jouni, 2016. "A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1148-1159.
    6. Anjo, João & Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos & Shivakumar, Abhishek & Howells, Mark, 2018. "Modeling the long-term impact of demand response in energy planning: The Portuguese electric system case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 456-468.
    7. Burleyson, Casey D. & Iyer, Gokul & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Sonny & Kyle, Page & Rice, Jennie S. & Smith, Amanda D. & Taylor, Z. Todd & Voisin, Nathalie & Xie, Yulong, 2020. "Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    8. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Gouveia, João Pedro & Seixas, Júlia, 2019. "Electricity, the silver bullet for the deep decarbonisation of the energy system? Cost-effectiveness analysis for Portugal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 292-303.
    9. Nunes, Pedro & Farias, Tiago & Brito, Miguel C., 2015. "Enabling solar electricity with electric vehicles smart charging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 10-20.
    10. Amorim, Filipa & Simoes, Sofia G. & Siggini, Gildas & Assoumou, Edi, 2020. "Introducing climate variability in energy systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    11. Moazami, Amin & Nik, Vahid M. & Carlucci, Salvatore & Geving, Stig, 2019. "Impacts of future weather data typology on building energy performance – Investigating long-term patterns of climate change and extreme weather conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 696-720.
    12. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric D. & Reyna, Janet, 2019. "Forecasting peak electricity demand for Los Angeles considering higher air temperatures due to climate change," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1-9.
    13. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    14. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao, 2019. "The impact of climate change on wind power abundance and variability in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Schlott, Markus & Kies, Alexander & Brown, Tom & Schramm, Stefan & Greiner, Martin, 2018. "The impact of climate change on a cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 1645-1659.
    16. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    17. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    18. Tarroja, Brian & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott, 2016. "Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 295-305.
    19. Marianne Zeyringer & James Price & Birgit Fais & Pei-Hao Li & Ed Sharp, 2018. "Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 395-403, May.
    20. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    2. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    3. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    5. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    6. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    8. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    9. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    10. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Chaiechi, Taha & Alam Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul, 2019. "A techno-economic and environmental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability impact on the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 329-346.
    11. Borasio, M. & Moret, S., 2022. "Deep decarbonisation of regional energy systems: A novel modelling approach and its application to the Italian energy transition," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    13. Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A., 2019. "Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 862-868.
    14. Handayani, Kamia & Filatova, Tatiana & Krozer, Yoram & Anugrah, Pinto, 2020. "Seeking for a climate change mitigation and adaptation nexus: Analysis of a long-term power system expansion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    15. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    16. Lovro Frković & Boris Ćosić & Tomislav Pukšec & Nikola Vladimir, 2023. "Modelling of the Standalone Onshore Charging Station: The Nexus between Offshore Renewables and All-Electric Ships," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-16, August.
    17. Burillo, Daniel & Chester, Mikhail V. & Pincetl, Stephanie & Fournier, Eric, 2019. "Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities due to long-term growth and extreme heat from climate change in Los Angeles County," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 943-953.
    18. Andrés Ruiz & Florin Onea & Eugen Rusu, 2020. "Study Concerning the Expected Dynamics of the Wind Energy Resources in the Iberian Nearshore," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-25, September.
    19. Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    20. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Huang, Kangdi & Feng, Maoyuan & He, Shaokun & Ming, Bo, 2021. "Deriving adaptive long-term complementary operating rules for a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using ensemble Kalman filter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:224:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221003741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.