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Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia

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  • Blanford, Geoffrey J.
  • Rose, Steven K.
  • Tavoni, Massimo
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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2 emissions for the next several decades, especially for China and India. We find a very wide range of projected emissions paths across the models and identify per capita income and energy intensity as the two major factors responsible for the variation. While the range of assumptions for growth in the former is roughly consistent with historical experience in other Asian economies, models foresee faster reductions in the latter with respect to those observed in neighboring countries at similar stages of economic development. On the other hand, there is a considerable agreement on the evolution of the energy technology mix, which is assumed to continue to be dominated by fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
    Issue (Month): S3 ()
    Pages: S284-S292

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:s3:p:s284-s292

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Integrated assessment modeling; Baseline scenarios; Emissions projections; Asia;

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    Cited by:
    1. Hannah Förster & Katja Schumacher & Enrica De Cian & Michael Hübler & Ilkka Keppo & Silvana Mima & Ronald D. Sands, 2013. "European energy efficiency and decarbonization strategies beyond 2030 : A sectoral multi-model decomposition," Post-Print halshs-00939253, HAL.
    2. Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.

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