Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia
AbstractThis paper analyzes the projected development of energy systems in the Asia region in the hypothetical absence of future carbon policies. Baseline scenarios prepared by participating teams in the Asia Modeling Exercise are used to generate a comprehensive assessment of the key drivers of CO2 emissions for the next several decades, especially for China and India. We find a very wide range of projected emissions paths across the models and identify per capita income and energy intensity as the two major factors responsible for the variation. While the range of assumptions for growth in the former is roughly consistent with historical experience in other Asian economies, models foresee faster reductions in the latter with respect to those observed in neighboring countries at similar stages of economic development. On the other hand, there is a considerable agreement on the evolution of the energy technology mix, which is assumed to continue to be dominated by fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): S3 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Integrated assessment modeling; Baseline scenarios; Emissions projections; Asia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
- Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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