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Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

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  • Richard Tol

Abstract

The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:4:p:961-970
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6
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