Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Effect of African Growth on Future Global Energy, Emissions, and Regional Development

Contents:

Author Info

  • Katherine Calvin

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute/PNNL)

  • Shonali Pachauri

    (Organization International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/IIASA)

  • Enrica De Cian

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change/CMCC)

  • Ioanna Mouratiadou

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research/PIK)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5% and 20% of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4% and 10% of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/2014320926194NDL2014-028.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2014.28.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Mar 2014
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.28

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan
    Phone: 0039-2-52036934
    Fax: 0039-2-52036946
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.feem.it/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: African Growth; Global Energy; Emissions;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Steinberger, Julia K. & Roberts, J. Timmons, 2010. "From constraint to sufficiency: The decoupling of energy and carbon from human needs, 1975-2005," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 425-433, December.
    2. Anton Eberhard & Orvika Rosnes & Maria Shkaratan & Haakon Vennemo, 2011. "Africa's Power Infrastructure : Investment, Integration, Efficiency," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2290.
    3. Richard G. Newell & Stuart Iler, 2013. "The Global Energy Outlook," NBER Working Papers 18967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Calvin, Katherine & Clarke, Leon & Krey, Volker & Blanford, Geoffrey & Jiang, Kejun & Kainuma, Mikiko & Kriegler, Elmar & Luderer, Gunnar & Shukla, P.R., 2012. "The role of Asia in mitigating climate change: Results from the Asia modeling exercise," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S251-S260.
    5. Ekholm, Tommi & Krey, Volker & Pachauri, Shonali & Riahi, Keywan, 2010. "Determinants of household energy consumption in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5696-5707, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.