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Dynamic asymmetries in house price cycles: A generalized smooth transition model

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  • Canepa, Alessandra
  • Chini, Emilio Zanetti

Abstract

In this paper we propose a novel nonlinear model to capture asymmetries in real estate cycles. The approach involves a particular parametrization of the transition function used in the transition equation of a smooth transition autoregressive model which improves the fit in the non-central probability region. The dynamic symmetry in house price cycles is strongly rejected for the housing markets taken into consideration. Further, our results show that the proposed model performs well in a out of sample forecasting exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Canepa, Alessandra & Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2016. "Dynamic asymmetries in house price cycles: A generalized smooth transition model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 91-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:91-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.02.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecaster’s utility and forecasts coherence," DEM Working Papers Series 145, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2020. "Are cyclical patterns of international housing markets interdependent?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 14-24.
    3. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2023. "Modelling and Forecasting Energy Market Cycles: A Generalized Smooth Transition Approach," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202318, University of Turin.
    4. Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2013. "Generalizing smooth transition autoregressions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 711-732.
    6. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Modelling Housing Market Cycles in Global Cities," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201901, University of Turin.
    7. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2020. "Global Cities and Local Housing Market Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 671-697, November.
    8. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Sajid Ali & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Asymmetric Nonlinear Impact of Oil Prices and Inflation on Residential Property Prices: a Case of US, UK and Canada," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 39-54, June.
    9. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2022. "Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-29, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House price cycles; Dynamic asymmetries; Non-linear models; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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