Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Does stock return predictability affect ESO fair value?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Carmona, Julio
  • León, Angel
  • Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni

Abstract

Executive Stock Options (ESOs) are modified American options that cannot be valued using standard methods. With a few exceptions, the literature has discussed the ESO fair value by assuming unpredictable stock returns which are not supported by the available empirical evidence. In this paper we obtain the fair value of American ESOs when stock returns are predictable and, specifically, driven by the trending Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process of Lo and Wang (1995). We solve the executive’s portfolio allocation problem for a simple buy-and-hold strategy when his wealth can be distributed between a risk-free asset and a market portfolio. This problem is jointly solved with the executive’s optimal exercise policy. We find that executives tend to wait longer the higher the predictability, independently of the composition of executive’s asset menu. We have also analyzed the implications under the FAS123R proposals for the ESO fair value and found that, even for low autocorrelations, there is a meaningful mispricing when unpredictable returns are erroneously assumed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221712004572
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 223 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 188-202

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:223:y:2012:i:1:p:188-202

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

Related research

Keywords: G11; G13; G17; G35; M52; Executive stock options; Risk aversion; Undiversification; Predictability; FAS123R;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Len, Angel & Vaello-Sebasti, Antoni, 2009. "American GARCH employee stock option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1129-1143, June.
  2. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
  4. Hall, Brian J. & Murphy, Kevin J., 2002. "Stock options for undiversified executives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-42, February.
  5. Grundy, Bruce D, 1991. " Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1045-69, July.
  6. Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr., 2006. "The Subjective and Objective Evaluation of Incentive Stock Options," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 453-488, March.
  7. Lars Stentoft, 2004. "Assessing the Least Squares Monte-Carlo Approach to American Option Valuation," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 129-168, 08.
  8. Jennifer Carpenter, 1997. "The Exercise and Valuation of Executive Stock Options," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 97-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  9. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  10. Jennergren, L. Peter & Naslund, Bertil, 1996. "A class of options with stochastic lives and an extension of the Black-Scholes formula," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 229-234, June.
  11. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
  12. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
  13. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Philip Brown & Alex Szimayer, 2008. "Valuing executive stock options: performance hurdles, early exercise and stochastic volatility," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(3), pages 363-389.
  15. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2001. "Option pricing under linear autoregressive dynamics, heteroskedasticity, and conditional leptokurtosis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, March.
  16. Paschke, Raphael & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2010. "Commodity derivatives valuation with autoregressive and moving average components in the price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2742-2752, November.
  17. Manuel Moreno & Javier R. Navas, 2001. "On the robustness of least-squares Monte Carlo (LSM) for pricing American derivatives," Economics Working Papers 543, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  18. Grundy, R.D., 1991. "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution," Weiss Center Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  19. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-47.
  20. Bettis, J. Carr & Bizjak, John M. & Lemmon, Michael L., 2005. "Exercise behavior, valuation, and the incentive effects of employee stock options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 445-470, May.
  21. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
  22. León, Angel & Vaello-Sebastià, Antoni, 2010. "A simulation-based algorithm for American executive stock option valuation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 14-23, March.
  23. Jiang, George J. & Tian, Yisong S., 2010. "Forecasting Volatility Using Long Memory and Comovements: An Application to Option Valuation under SFAS 123R," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(02), pages 503-533, April.
  24. Tian, Yisong S., 2004. "Too much of a good incentive? The case of executive stock options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1225-1245, June.
  25. Kimura, Toshikazu, 2010. "Valuing executive stock options: A quadratic approximation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1368-1379, December.
  26. Bruce D. Grundy, . "Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution (Reprint 012)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:223:y:2012:i:1:p:188-202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.