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Option Prices and the Underlying Asset's Return Distribution (Reprint 012)

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  • Bruce D. Grundy
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    Abstract

    This work examines the relation between option prices and the true, as opposed to risk-neutral, distribution of the underlying asset. If the underlying asset follows a diffusion with an instantaneous expected return at least as large as the instantaneous risk-free rate, observed option prices can be used to place bounds on the moments of the true distribution. An illustration of the paper’s results is provided by the analysis of the information concerning the mean and standard deviation of market returns contained in the prices of S&P 100 Index Options.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research in its series Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers with number 11-91.

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    Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:11-91

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    Cited by:
    1. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
    2. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & James F. Refalo, 1999. "An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997," NBER Working Papers 6929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    4. Jouini, Elyès & Chazal, Marie, 2008. "Equilibrium Pricing Bound on Option Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/30, Paris Dauphine University.
    5. Wong, Man Hong & Zhang, Shuzhong, 2013. "Computing best bounds for nonlinear risk measures with partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 204-212.
    6. Hsuan-Chu Lin & Ren-Raw Chen & Oded Palmon, 2012. "Non-parametric method for European option bounds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 109-129, January.
    7. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Wong, Man Hong & Zhang, Shuzhong, 2014. "On distributional robust probability functions and their computations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 23-33.
    9. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
    10. Carmona, Julio & León, Angel & Vaello-Sebastiá, Antoni, 2011. "Does Stock Return Predictability Affect ESO Fair Value?," QM&ET Working Papers 11-2, Universidad de Alicante, Departamento de Métodos Cuantitativos y Teoría Económica, revised 16 Jan 2012.
    11. Donald Brown & Rustam Ibragimov, 2005. "Sign Tests for Dependent Observations and Bounds for Path-Dependent Options," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2581, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
    12. Jose Manuel Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1996. "Options-based evidence of the credibility of the peseta in the ERM," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 20(1), pages 3-22, January.
    13. Martin Cincibuch, 2002. "Distributions Implied by Exchange Traded Options: A Ghost’s Smile?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp200, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.

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