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Does austerity really kill?

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  • Toffolutti, Veronica
  • Suhrcke, Marc

Abstract

A growing body of the literature has argued that austerity has been bad for health, though without directly measuring austerity. This paper explicitly distinguishes the association of mortality with macroeconomic fluctuations from that with fiscal policy measures, using data for 28 European Union (EU) countries covering the period 1991–2013. The main results present a nuanced, complex picture about the mortality impact of fiscal policies. We confirm the mortality decreasing (increasing) effect of recessions (booms), with the exception of suicide mortality, which shows the opposite effects. Austerity regimes are associated with an increase in all-cause mortality (0.7%). At the same time, fiscal stimuli tend to significantly increase death rates due to cirrhosis or chronic liver disease (3%) and those due to vehicle accidents (4.3%). Our results are sensitive to the set of countries included: when excluding the Baltics, Romania and Hungary, austerity policies turn out to significantly increase suicide-related mortality (2.8%), while the effect on all-cause mortality remains unaffected (0.7%). Overall, however it appears that the austerity-increasing effects are mostly compensated by the (mostly) mortality-decreasing effects of recessions. A notable exception appears to be suicides, which receive a ‘double-boost’ from both recessions and austerity.

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  • Toffolutti, Veronica & Suhrcke, Marc, 2019. "Does austerity really kill?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 211-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:33:y:2019:i:c:p:211-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2019.03.002
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    2. Janke, Katharina & Lee, Kevin & Propper, Carol & Shields, Kalvinder & Shields, Michael A., 2023. "Economic conditions and health: Local effects, national effect and local area heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 801-828.
    3. Guccio, C. & Pignatora, G. & Vidoli, F., 2023. "It never rains but it pours: Austerity and mortality rate in peripheral areas," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 23/02, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Balbo, Nicoletta & Carapella, Piergiorgio & Toffolutti, Veronica, 2020. "Trends in the use of mind-altering drugs among European adolescents during the Great Recession," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(5), pages 568-574.
    5. Cirulli, Vanessa & Marini, Giorgia, 2023. "Are austerity measures really distressing? Evidence from Italy," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Manuel Holz & Jochen Mayerl, 2021. "Early days of the pandemic—The association of economic and socio-political country characteristics with the development of the COVID-19 death toll," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-13, August.
    7. Takashi Shiroyama & Kouji Fukuyama & Motohiro Okada, 2021. "Effects of Financial Expenditure of Prefectures/Municipalities on Regional Suicide Mortality in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-16, August.
    8. McCartney, Gerry & McMaster, Robert & Popham, Frank & Dundas, Ruth & Walsh, David, 2022. "Is austerity a cause of slower improvements in mortality in high-income countries? A panel analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    9. Toshiki Hasegawa & Kouji Fukuyama & Motohiro Okada, 2021. "Relationships between Expenditure of Regional Governments and Suicide Mortalities Caused by Six Major Motives in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, December.
    10. Yuji Mizushima & Haruko Noguchi, 2021. "Spillover effects of minimum wages on suicide mortality: Evidence from Japan," Working Papers 2105, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.

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