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Recessions and mortality: a global perspective

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  • Sebastian Doerr
  • Boris Hofmann

Abstract

Using panel data covering 180 countries over six decades, this paper shows that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality rates. During years when GDP falls, death rates rise, primarily in emerging market and developing economies and there among children in particular. In advanced economies, death rates increase only slightly. We further nd that the scarring effects of recessions persist for several years and that deeper recessions lead to larger increases in mortality. In contrast, booms or periods of subdued growth are not associated with a marked decline in death rates. Our ndings have implications for the policy response to Covid-19 and suggest that the eventual death toll of the pandemic may be understated if the impact of the coronavirus recession is neglected.

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  • Sebastian Doerr & Boris Hofmann, 2020. "Recessions and mortality: a global perspective," BIS Working Papers 910, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:910
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bietenbeck, Jan & Sunde, Uwe & Thiemann, Petra, 2023. "Recession Experiences during Early Adulthood Shape Prosocial Attitudes Later in Life," IZA Discussion Papers 16490, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    recession; mortality; pandemic; virus containment; lockdown; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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