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The Time‐Varying Relationship between Mortality and Business Cycles in the USA

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  • Jean‐Paul Lam
  • Emmanuelle Piérard

Abstract

We examine the relationship between total mortality, deaths due to motor vehicle accidents, cardiovascular disease and measures of business cycles for the USA, using a time‐varying parameter model for the periods 1961–2010. We first present a theoretical model to outline the transmission mechanism from business cycles to health status, to motivate our empirical framework and to explain why the relationship between mortality and the economy may have changed over time. We find overwhelming evidence of structural breaks in the relationship between mortality and business cycles over the sample period. Overall, the relationship between total mortality, cardiovascular mortality and the economy has become less procyclical over time and even countercyclical in recent times for certain age groups. Deaths due to motor vehicle accidents have remained strongly procyclical. Using drugs and medical patent data and data on hours worked, we argue that important advances in medical technology and changes in the effects that working hours have on health are important reasons for this time‐varying relationship. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Jean‐Paul Lam & Emmanuelle Piérard, 2017. "The Time‐Varying Relationship between Mortality and Business Cycles in the USA," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 164-183, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:26:y:2017:i:2:p:164-183
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.3285
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    2. Max Brüning & Josselin Thuilliez, 2019. "Mortality and Macroeconomic Conditions: What Can We Learn From France?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1747-1764, October.
    3. Toffolutti, Veronica & Suhrcke, Marc, 2019. "Does austerity really kill?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 211-223.
    4. Doerr, Sebastian & Hofmann, Boris, 2022. "Recessions and mortality: A global perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Kadir Atalay & Rebecca Edwards & Stefanie Schurer & David Ubilava, 2021. "Lives saved during economic downturns: Evidence from Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(10), pages 2452-2467, September.
    6. Antony, Jürgen & Klarl, Torben, 2020. "Estimating the income inequality-health relationship for the United States between 1941 and 2015: Will the relevant frequencies please stand up?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).

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