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Crises, portfolio flows, and foreign direct investment: An application to Turkey

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  • Uctum, Merih
  • Uctum, Remzi

Abstract

We analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between the components of capital flows and their determinants in an emerging economy. Our results suggest that the composition of capital flows matters, crises can explain the volatility of portfolio flows and foreign direct investment, and modeling them as endogenous breakpoints improves the results considerably. By using data from the Turkish economy, we estimate these breakpoints together with the parameters of the model and find that they correspond to international and domestic crises that hit the country. Although both components are affected by similar crises, direct investment reacts strongly to the domestic crisis, while portfolios flows are more sensitive to global financial conditions. Breaks also have an effect on the significance and sign of determinants of each type of international investment. Evidence indicates changes in all coefficients in both investment types and suggests that analyses assuming parameter constancy lead to misleading results if they ignore the influence of endogenous breaks.

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  • Uctum, Merih & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Crises, portfolio flows, and foreign direct investment: An application to Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 462-480.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:4:p:462-480
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.10.005
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Umar Draz & Su-Chang Yang, 2016. "Do External and Internal Crises Affect Foreign Portfolio Inflows? The Case of China and India," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(7), pages 149-149, July.
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    6. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2014. "Source and host country volatility and FDI : A gravity analysis of European investment to Middle East and North Africa," Larefi Working Papers 1405, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    7. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2014. "Output Volatility And Fdi To Middle East And North African Countries: A Close-Up On The Source Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 40, pages 139-165.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Crises; Structural changes; Country risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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