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The time varying effect of monetary policy on stock returns

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  • Jansen, Dennis W.
  • Zervou, Anastasia

Abstract

We find that a surprise increase on the federal funds rate has five times stronger and statistically significant effects on stock returns during 2000–2007, versus statistically insignificant effects during 1989–2000. These differences are not apparent in the bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jansen, Dennis W. & Zervou, Anastasia, 2017. "The time varying effect of monetary policy on stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 54-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:160:y:2017:i:c:p:54-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
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    5. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    6. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    7. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
    8. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    9. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    10. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    11. Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
    12. Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2014. "The evolution of Federal Reserve policy and the impact of monetary policy surprises on asset prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 73-109.
    13. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    14. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Benchimol, Jonathan & Saadon, Yossi & Segev, Nimrod, 2023. "Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Peng, Yulei & Zervou, Anastasia, 2022. "Monetary policy rules and the equity premium in a segmented markets model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Ahmed Samour, Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal, Turgut Türsoy, 2023. "Effects of the domestic and ECB interest rates on Türkiye's stock market: Empirical evidence from a newly developed combined co-integration and causality analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 20(2), pages 223-238, December.
    5. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    6. Papa Gueye Fam & Rachida Hennani & Nicolas Huchet, 2017. "U.S. Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices And The Financialization Hypothesis," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 20, pages 53-77, December.
    7. Hattori, Takahiro & Yoshida, Jiro, 2023. "The impact of Bank of Japan’s exchange-traded fund purchases," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Mariko Tanaka, 2022. "The Effects of Large-scale Equity Purchases during the Coronavirus Pandemic," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1186, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy transmission; Stock prices; Time varying parameter model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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