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Overconfidence as a social bias: Experimental evidence

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  • Proeger, Till
  • Meub, Lukas

Abstract

The overconfidence bias is discussed extensively in economic studies, yet fails to hold experimentally once monetary incentives and feedback are implemented. We consider overconfidence as a social bias. For a simple real effort task, we show that, individually, economic conditions effectively prevent overconfidence. By contrast, the introduction of a very basic, purely observational social setting fosters overconfident self-assessments. Additionally, observing others’ actions effectively eliminates underconfidence compared to the individual setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Proeger, Till & Meub, Lukas, 2014. "Overconfidence as a social bias: Experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 203-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:122:y:2014:i:2:p:203-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.11.027
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    3. Uri Gneezy & Moshe Hoffman & Mark A Lane & John A List & Jeffrey A Livingston & Michael J Seiler, 2023. "Can wishful thinking explain evidence for overconfidence? An experiment on belief updating," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 35-54.
    4. Filiz, Ibrahim & Judek, Jan René & Lorenz, Marco & Spiwoks, Markus, 2021. "Reducing algorithm aversion through experience," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    5. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 30-37, 01-2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Laboratory experiment; Overconfidence bias; Real effort; Self-assessment; Social interaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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