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Is there an optimistic bias on betting markets?

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  • Page, Lionel
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    Abstract

    Bettors are subject to an optimistic bias when betting on the team they support. This paper shows that this individual bias does not affect betting odds on British teams in association football (soccer), as it is often argued.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4TWTH07-1/2/e53b95f9e758970ec7d1eca9652225d0
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 102 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 70-72

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:102:y:2009:i:2:p:70-72

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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    Keywords: Football Soccer Wishful thinking Betting odds;

    References

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    1. Les Coleman, 2004. "New light on the longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 315-326.
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    10. Richard Zuber & Patrick Yiu & Reinhold Lamb & John Gandar, 2005. "Investor-fans? An examination of the performance of publicly traded English Premier League teams," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 305-313.
    11. Kyle, Albert S & Wang, F Albert, 1997. " Speculation Duopoly with Agreement to Disagree: Can Overconfidence Survive the Market Test?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2073-90, December.
    12. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    13. Paul W. Grimes, 2002. "The Overconfident Principles of Economics Student: An Examination of a Metacognitive Skill," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 15-30, January.
    14. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
    15. Yates, J. Frank & Lee, Ju-Whei & Shinotsuka, Hiromi & Patalano, Andrea L. & Sieck, Winston R., 1998. "Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 89-117, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. " The Liquidity Advantage of Quote-driven Markets: Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 342, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).

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