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Bank systemic risk and CEO overconfidence

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  • Lee, Jin-Ping
  • Lin, Edward M.H.
  • Lin, James Juichia
  • Zhao, Yang

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between CEO overconfidence and banking systemic risk. We employ the CoVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk) approach to measure a bank's contribution to systemic risk and compute its MES (Marginal Expected Shortfall) and SRISK (Systemic Risk index) to measure the exposure to banking systemic risk. We use a stock options based measure for CEO overconfidence and explore how managerial overconfidence could be associated with banking systemic risk. Using data for U.S. banks from 1995–2014, we find evidence that banks with overconfident CEOs have a higher contribution and exposure to systemic risk than banks with non-overconfident CEOs. We also show that the impact of CEO overconfidence contributed significantly more to systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2008–2009.

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  • Lee, Jin-Ping & Lin, Edward M.H. & Lin, James Juichia & Zhao, Yang, 2020. "Bank systemic risk and CEO overconfidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s106294081830487x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.03.011
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    2. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Výrost, Tomáš, 2020. "Increasing systemic risk during the Covid-19 pandemic: A cross-quantilogram analysis of the banking sector," EconStor Preprints 222580, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Bernhard Kassner, 2023. "Taming Overconfident CEOs Through Stricter Financial Regulation," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 375, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Shutong Zhang & Jun Nagayasu, 2023. "Regional Policies’ Impacts on Urban Migration:Evidence from Special Economic Zones in China," TUPD Discussion Papers 45, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    5. Chen, Po-Jung & Hsu, Ching-Yu, 2022. "CEO optimism, CEO selection, compensation, and corporate investment decision: The case of CEOs who were rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Jieqi Guan & Brian M. Lam & Ching Chi Lam & Ming Liu, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and the level of short-selling activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 685-708, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CEO Overconfidence; Finance crisis; Banking; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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