IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v94y2021icp296-302.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade models and macroeconomics

Author

Listed:
  • Fair, Ray C.

Abstract

This paper discusses some macro links that are missing from trade models. A multicountry macroeconometric model is used to analyze the effects on the United States of increased import competition from China, an experiment that is common in the recent trade literature. In the macro story a fall in Chinese export prices is stimulative. Domestic prices fall, which increases real wage rates and real wealth, which increases household expenditures. Trade models do not have these channels, and they likely overestimate the negative effects or underestimate the positive effects on total output and employment from increased Chinese import competition. They lack some important aggregate demand channels.

Suggested Citation

  • Fair, Ray C., 2021. "Trade models and macroeconomics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 296-302.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:94:y:2021:i:c:p:296-302
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999320312256
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    5. Ray C Fair, 2020. "Some important macro points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 556-578.
    6. Fair Ray C, 2003. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shen, Leilei & Silva, Peri, 2018. "Value-added exports and U.S. local labor markets: Does China really matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 479-504.
    2. David Autor & Caroline Chin & Anna M. Salomons & Bryan Seegmiller, 2022. "New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018," NBER Working Papers 30389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Akira Sasahara, 2018. "The ‘China shock,’ exports and U.S. employment: A global input–output analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1083, November.
    4. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    5. Amiti, Mary & Dai, Mi & Feenstra, Robert C. & Romalis, John, 2020. "How did China's WTO entry affect U.S. prices?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Hassan, Fadi & Esposito, Federico, 2023. "Import Competition, Trade Credit, and Financial Frictions in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 17926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kozo Kiyota & Sawako Maruyama & Mina Taniguchi, 2021. "The China syndrome: A cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2758-2792, September.
    9. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2022. "Trade Liberalization and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 22-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    10. Esposito, Federico & Hassan, Fadi, 2023. "Import competition, trade credit and financial frictions in general equilibrium," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Jiyoung Kim & Sun Go, 2022. "Exports to China and Local Employment in South Korea," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 197-214, March.
    12. Andrés César & Guillermo Falcone, 2020. "Heterogeneous Effects of Chinese Import Competition on Chilean Manufacturing Plants," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-60, December.
    13. Timo Walter, 2023. "German labor market reform and the rise of Eastern Europe: dissecting their effects on employment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 351-387, May.
    14. Daniel Lind, 2022. "The China Effect on Manufacturing Productivity in the United States and Other High-income Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 33-62, Spring.
    15. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    17. Rodrigo Ad'o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp'sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Juan Blyde, 2021. "Import exposure and welfare effects from the expenditure channel: The case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2998-3024, October.
    19. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade models; Macroeconomics;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:94:y:2021:i:c:p:296-302. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.