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Financial spillovers and spillbacks: New evidence from China and G7 countries

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  • Fang, Yi
  • Jing, Zhongbo
  • Shi, Yukun
  • Zhao, Yang

Abstract

With the increasing openness of the Chinese economy, Chinese financial markets are becoming more integrated with those in developed markets. The goal of this paper is to comprehensively investigate the spillovers and spillbacks in stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets between China and the G7 countries using data from 2000 to 2018. Four important findings emerge: (1) financial spillovers account for a large proportion of the variations in bond, stock, and foreign exchange markets, indicating that the international spillover effect has become an important driver of asset prices; (2) Chinese financial markets have a growing impact on global financial markets over time, especially during periods of turbulence; (3) spillovers from the G7 to China are still higher than the spillbacks from China, suggesting that Chinese markets are more influenced by the financial markets in the G7 economies than the other way around; (4) economic policy uncertainty is the main driver of cross-border financial spillovers. Our findings have important implications for policy makers who aim to promote international macroprudential policy coordination.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Yi & Jing, Zhongbo & Shi, Yukun & Zhao, Yang, 2021. "Financial spillovers and spillbacks: New evidence from China and G7 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 184-200.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:94:y:2021:i:c:p:184-200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.09.022
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    5. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "When the United States and the People’s Republic of China Sneeze: International Real and Financial Spillovers in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 1288, Asian Development Bank Institute.
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    9. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2023. "Global banking, financial spillovers and macroprudential policy coordination," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 1003-1040, July.
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    11. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2022. "Tail-risk spillovers from China to G7 stock market returns during the COVID-19 outbreak: A market and sectoral analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2022. "Modeling global real economic activity: Evidence from variable selection across quantiles," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    13. Kai Shi, 2021. "Spillovers of Stock Markets among the BRICS: New Evidence in Time and Frequency Domains before the Outbreak of COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-37, March.
    14. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2022. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 79-127, February.
    15. Xiaoyu Liu & Xiao Zhang, 2023. "Are there financial stability gains from international macroprudential policy coordination?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 575-596, December.
    16. Lin, Weinan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Xuan & Zhuang, Chengkai, 2023. "Network analysis of international financial markets contagion based on volatility indexes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh, 2023. "The extreme spillover from climate policy uncertainty to the Chinese sector stock market: wavelet time-varying approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Pineda, Julián & Cortés, Lina M. & Perote, Javier, 2022. "Financial contagion drivers during recent global crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Jiang, Kunliang & Ye, Wuyi, 2022. "Does the asymmetric dependence volatility affect risk spillovers between the crude oil market and BRICS stock markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    20. Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2023. "Is there commodity connectedness across investment horizons? Evidence using news-based uncertainty indices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    21. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    22. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona & Van Robays, Ine, 2023. "China’s footprint in global financial markets," Working Paper Series 2861, European Central Bank.
    23. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Li, Yameng & Huang, Chia-Yun & Peculea, Adelina Dumitrescu, 2023. "Volatility spillover across Chinese carbon markets: Evidence from quantile connectedness method," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial spillovers; Financial spillbacks; Emerging markets; VAR model; Transmission channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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