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High-speed railway and the intercity transmission of epidemics: Evidence from COVID-19 in China

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  • Wan, Liyang
  • Wan, Qian

Abstract

In the context of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, we investigate the effect of intercity high-speed railway (HSR) connections on intercity transmission of epidemics in the absence of government intervention. Intercity HSR connections increase the number of COVID-19 patients per 10,000 population by 0.029, accounting for 45% of the total infections. Our results remain intact in several robustness assessments. The total economic loss owing to HSR connections to Wuhan is estimated to be USD 0.62 billion. The internal mechanism demonstrates that intercity HSR connections increase intercity COVID-19 transmission by facilitating human mobility between cities. Based on intercity transportation connections, our findings can help the government predict the direction and scope of virus transmission and control the intercity transmission of epidemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Liyang & Wan, Qian, 2022. "High-speed railway and the intercity transmission of epidemics: Evidence from COVID-19 in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:114:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322001808
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105934
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    Cited by:

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    3. Batabyal, Sourav & McCollum, Meagan, 2023. "Should population density be used to rank social vulnerability in disaster preparedness planning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Chen, Hongwen & Cheng, Ken & Zhang, Meiyang, 2023. "Does geographic proximity affect firms’ cross-regional development? Evidence from high-speed rail construction in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intercity transmission of epidemics; High-speed railway; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health

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