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Should population density be used to rank social vulnerability in disaster preparedness planning?

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  • Batabyal, Sourav
  • McCollum, Meagan

Abstract

The CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was developed to help public health officials and policymakers to identify geospatial variations in social vulnerability for each community to better respond to hazardous events, including disease outbreaks. However, the SVI does not include information on population density, which is a significant omission when considering the usefulness of the index in allocating scarce resources such as medical supplies and personnel, bedding, food, and water to locations they are most needed. Using county-level data from the initial U.S. COVID-19 outbreak, we provide empirical evidence that the existing SVI underestimates (overestimates) county-level infection rates in densely (sparsely) populated counties if population density is not accounted for. Population density remains significant even after allowing for spatial spillover effects. Going forward, the inclusion of population density to construct SVI can improve its usefulness in aiding policymakers in allocating scarce resources for future disasters, especially those with spatial dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Batabyal, Sourav & McCollum, Meagan, 2023. "Should population density be used to rank social vulnerability in disaster preparedness planning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:125:y:2023:i:c:s0264999322004023
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106165
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social vulnerability index; Population density; COVID-19; Stay-at-home notification/advisory; U.S. counties;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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